Question: Please compare the duration estimation based on the following two approaches. Statistical theory based approach expects you to follow the standard PERT solution process to

  1. Please compare the duration estimation based on the following two approaches. Statistical theory based approach expects you to follow the standard PERT solution process to identify the mean and variability measures. For the Monte Carlo simulation based approach, the data file is attached as PERT - ex ante data.
Based on Statistical Theories Based on Ex Ante Data
Mean Variance St.Dev. Mean Variance St.Dev.
Project Duration
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Predecessor Critical Path
A 17 29 47 - Yes
B 6 12 24 A Yes
C 16 19 28 A
D 13 16 19 B Yes
E 2 5 14 C
F 2 5 8 D, E Yes
A B C D E F ABDF
1 23 9 18 16 3 4 52
2 34 16 18 17 3 6 73
3 25 18 23 18 3 7 68
4 21 16 20 16 9 5 58
5 32 12 20 18 8 4 66
6 27 10 24 15 4 5 57
7 22 10 26 16 7 6 54
8 31 11 23 14 4 4 60
9 36 15 21 15 3 5 71
10 38 7 27 14 5 5 64
11 39 15 22 15 10 6 75
12 25 15 22 17 4 3 60
13 28 13 19 17 3 8 66
14 41 8 19 15 8 5 69
15 23 14 20 15 6 4 56
16 28 14 18 15 10 5 62
17 27 11 19 16 6 4 58
18 26 8 18 15 4 4 53
19 24 21 21 14 4 4 63
20 31 13 21 16 6 5 65
21 33 16 18 16 8 6 71
22 35 9 17 17 7 5 66
23 39 13 24 15 8 8 75
24 36 19 22 15 12 5 75
25 34 22 25 15 4 4 75
26 22 12 21 18 4 5 57
27 20 20 27 16 6 5 61
28 32 22 20 17 12 5 76
29 29 12 22 16 7 4 61
30 31 12 17 17 8 6 66
31 39 20 27 16 11 6 81
32 27 17 24 14 8 6 64
33 41 10 18 15 5 5 71
34 32 7 21 17 7 4 60
35 23 14 18 16 7 5 58
36 19 12 17 18 3 5 54
37 19 14 21 16 8 7 56
38 33 10 20 14 6 3 60
39 26 13 22 17 4 5 61
40 36 11 20 16 9 5 68
41 19 12 23 19 4 5 55
42 32 16 23 18 7 3 69
43 31 14 18 14 4 6 65
44 28 13 27 17 7 3 61
45 29 15 22 18 10 4 66
46 32 14 23 15 9 6 67
47 30 12 22 15 4 6 63
48 32 21 20 19 7 6 78
49 33 14 18 15 12 7 69
50 33 13 27 17 10 5 68
51 24 11 17 17 8 4 56
52 39 14 22 15 6 6 74
53 43 9 22 17 6 5 74
54 44 14 23 16 6 5 79
55 25 13 19 17 8 6 61
56 37 20 21 16 4 6 79
57 40 21 20 14 7 5 80
58 27 16 17 16 5 5 64
59 29 11 24 18 11 6 64
60 35 19 25 15 7 6 75
61 28 12 22 17 8 5 62
62 21 17 23 15 6 3 56
63 33 23 18 16 10 6 78
64 31 16 22 17 8 6 70
65 36 14 20 18 5 7 75
66 35 13 23 16 9 6 70
67 42 15 19 18 6 3 78
68 37 8 18 15 8 5 65
69 34 10 27 14 6 5 63
70 33 17 20 16 5 7 73
71 32 15 19 17 8 5 69
72 38 14 19 15 7 5 72
73 32 20 20 17 13 5 74
74 34 19 21 17 5 7 77
75 25 11 26 16 5 5 57
76 36 21 25 16 9 4 77
77 40 11 17 16 5 5 72
78 45 12 19 18 4 6 81
79 24 18 19 18 8 3 63
80 38 19 21 15 5 4 76
81 38 8 18 15 7 5 66
82 20 13 24 17 6 4 54
83 27 19 22 17 10 7 70
84 24 11 20 16 4 5 56
85 19 10 18 15 8 5 49
86 29 11 20 16 12 6 62
87 19 14 22 15 10 7 55
88 29 19 20 17 5 5 70
89 37 14 23 17 13 3 71
90 24 21 25 15 6 5 65
91 40 14 23 14 13 6 74
92 32 18 22 15 5 5 70
93 38 22 18 14 9 5 79
94 25 17 19 14 8 7 63
95 19 13 23 14 10 4 50
96 24 12 25 18 4 5 59
97 21 8 21 16 5 3 48
98 36 12 18 14 5 3 65
99 25 14 20 19 7 7 65
100 37 22 17 15 9 4 78
101 29 18 19 19 10 5 71
102 36 13 26 16 8 4 69
103 36 10 20 17 7 5 68
104 37 11 17 18 4 6 72
105 43 19 23 16 7 4 82
106 20 10 23 17 7 5 52
107 25 17 21 18 8 6 66
108 27 8 19 15 6 6 56
109 22 17 17 14 6 4 57
110 35 12 20 16 12 6 69
111 32 8 22 18 12 5 63
112 37 19 20 17 8 5 78
113 29 11 21 17 4 5 62
114 25 15 20 16 6 6 62
115 27 16 24 17 4 5 65
116 32 11 21 16 8 4 63
117 38 7 19 15 8 6 66
118 25 12 20 17 7 5 59
119 38 14 24 15 3 6 73
120 34 12 22 16 10 3 65
121 28 17 20 17 8 4 66
122 31 9 21 16 11 5 61
123 35 12 26 15 8 5 67
124 28 11 20 16 5 4 59
125 36 8 18 17 4 4 65
126 36 11 19 18 4 4 69
127 28 19 18 17 11 5 69
128 23 17 18 15 10 5 60
129 31 13 18 16 11 3 63
130 24 11 25 16 8 4 55
131 40 14 22 16 5 7 77
132 28 19 19 17 4 4 68
133 24 19 24 16 9 7 66
134 33 7 20 17 8 5 62
135 23 21 23 18 3 4 66
136 29 11 20 17 5 5 62
137 31 13 18 14 7 6 64
138 39 18 21 16 7 5 78
139 26 17 19 17 6 4 64
140 32 10 20 15 13 4 61
141 28 14 18 17 5 3 62
142 36 15 21 17 3 3 71
143 33 21 22 16 3 7 77
144 35 14 17 18 4 5 72
145 39 9 19 16 4 5 69
146 40 17 18 15 3 5 77
147 33 15 21 17 10 4 69
148 30 18 17 17 10 5 70
149 43 12 19 15 7 5 75
150 33 14 21 16 10 6 69
151 26 11 18 15 8 7 59
152 32 14 19 16 11 3 65
153 28 16 25 16 6 6 66
154 24 18 24 14 5 7 63
155 23 17 23 17 4 6 63
156 31 14 17 16 12 3 64
157 32 20 19 16 12 7 75
158 39 13 26 14 6 4 70
159 43 15 22 16 7 3 77
160 43 9 20 18 6 6 76
161 37 18 23 17 8 8 80
162 29 17 18 15 12 4 65
163 28 15 18 16 11 3 62
164 35 11 23 16 5 5 67
165 36 13 21 18 9 5 72
166 38 15 20 17 5 4 74
167 34 11 18 16 7 3 64
168 19 12 25 15 9 3 49
169 39 18 19 15 7 5 77
170 26 17 21 16 6 3 62
171 31 10 25 16 4 4 61
172 35 12 24 17 5 3 67
173 18 12 23 16 7 4 50
174 35 17 22 15 8 4 71
175 23 15 19 17 11 5 60
176 29 14 19 17 3 7 67
177 34 8 25 15 6 6 63
178 34 17 22 15 4 6 72
179 29 13 21 16 6 5 63
180 24 16 20 18 6 6 64
181 34 19 24 17 8 7 77
182 22 9 25 15 9 4 50
183 26 21 19 18 7 4 69
184 22 18 23 16 8 6 62
185 35 19 20 17 8 4 75
186 37 12 21 16 3 4 69
187 46 20 23 14 8 7 87
188 30 13 21 17 7 4 64
189 30 11 17 15 8 3 59
190 28 20 22 15 7 4 67
191 20 17 21 15 5 3 55
192 40 18 18 17 10 4 79
193 27 21 19 16 5 4 68
194 37 14 22 16 9 3 70
195 41 16 21 18 11 4 79
196 31 12 20 14 11 7 64
197 27 19 21 15 10 4 65
198 37 18 23 14 4 4 73
199 29 13 18 17 4 6 65
200 35 16 20 18 9 4 73
201 36 14 21 16 5 4 70
202 33 21 21 17 13 6 77
203 24 13 19 15 4 3 55
204 31 10 20 15 3 3 59
205 38 13 18 16 11 5 72
206 27 18 23 16 11 5 66
207 30 10 25 16 5 3 59
208 20 13 22 14 5 3 50
209 36 16 21 16 8 4 72
210 20 10 23 18 4 4 52
211 35 19 20 18 9 6 78
212 39 8 20 17 7 6 70
213 36 15 20 18 11 6 75
214 35 7 20 17 10 7 66
215 25 14 18 17 5 4 60
216 36 17 20 16 6 6 75
217 33 10 20 16 10 5 64
218 40 13 18 17 5 4 74
219 44 8 23 14 4 4 70
220 25 11 20 16 7 7 59
221 34 12 20 17 11 3 66
222 31 9 21 17 7 7 64
223 28 14 20 18 8 4 64
224 20 17 25 15 3 8 60
225 19 12 18 15 8 4 50
226 22 13 19 15 8 5 55
227 25 7 21 17 5 5 54
228 28 12 21 15 6 5 60
229 31 13 23 16 7 5 65
230 39 11 23 16 6 4 70
231 33 10 22 17 8 4 64
232 24 16 21 15 6 5 60
233 30 16 21 16 7 3 65
234 26 13 19 17 6 4 60
235 46 14 22 16 7 4 80
236 44 18 18 18 4 6 86
237 28 9 23 15 14 6 58
238 26 10 18 15 12 5 56
239 30 21 21 18 4 6 75
240 38 11 17 17 8 4 70
241 30 12 22 15 3 5 62
242 31 13 25 15 7 5 64
243 29 13 20 16 5 6 64
244 36 15 22 16 4 4 71
245 38 10 21 16 5 5 69
246 23 16 22 17 6 4 60
247 31 18 22 14 7 5 68
248 34 18 24 17 8 3 72
249 29 20 19 17 6 7 73
250 33 21 22 17 7 4 75
251 25 16 22 15 10 3 59
252 35 10 17 15 6 6 66
253 39 20 22 17 5 3 79
254 31 14 25 17 7 5 67
255 35 14 20 15 3 3 67
256 34 19 24 15 6 5 73
257 33 10 18 17 5 4 64
258 33 14 21 13 7 5 65
259 36 18 24 16 7 5 75
260 29 17 18 16 6 5 67
261 33 11 24 18 9 5 67
262 40 18 19 17 7 4 79
263 35 19 20 18 5 7 79
264 24 14 23 16 8 6 60
265 28 10 17 15 7 6 59
266 24 9 20 16 6 4 53
267 26 8 22 18 5 5 57
268 31 9 17 18 6 3 61
269 37 13 18 17 4 3 70
270 31 12 23 16 5 5 64
271 32 18 22 17 5 6 73
272 31 16 17 15 8 4 66
273 24 19 18 17 10 6 66
274 27 10 19 14 5 5 56
275 25 10 17 16 5 5 56
276 24 10 19 14 6 5 53
277 25 19 23 18 4 5 67
278 23 8 20 16 8 6 53
279 26 15 24 14 3 6 61
280 40 21 24 13 6 5 79
281 46 17 26 16 6 5 84
282 26 9 25 17 10 6 58
283 34 16 20 15 5 3 68
284 23 13 16 16 9 6 58
285 31 9 24 14 6 5 59
286 26 19 23 17 8 4 66
287 26 11 20 17 6 3 57
288 22 17 20 18 9 4 61
289 37 14 22 15 11 2 68
290 31 14 21 16 6 3 64
291 24 18 22 16 4 4 62
292 32 14 20 15 12 4 65
293 38 14 22 15 7 5 72
294 25 15 19 15 10 5 60
295 31 21 19 17 8 4 73
296 29 9 25 15 8 7 60
297 24 8 19 14 9 6 52
298 35 12 22 15 5 4 66
299 27 16 25 17 13 6 66
300 34 17 27 18 8 5 74
301 40 12 21 15 3 5 72
302 32 20 19 15 6 6 73
303 28 12 26 14 6 3 57
304 27 18 20 18 4 5 68
305 38 10 23 18 5 7 73
306 31 10 18 16 8 3 60
307 29 7 19 15 12 6 57
308 40 14 19 15 10 4 73
309 28 17 25 19 5 6 70
310 21 9 20 13 8 5 48
311 34 24 23 15 5 6 79
312 31 20 22 16 8 5 72
313 30 12 22 15 12 5 62
314 25 15 18 19 4 4 63
315 22 18 19 15 11 8 63
316 27 13 23 17 8 4 61
317 19 13 23 17 9 5 54
318 32 14 26 16 12 4 66
319 35 11 21 15 12 4 65
320 30 16 25 16 7 6 68
321 31 10 25 17 6 3 61
322 25 8 17 18 11 6 57
323 32 15 17 17 5 5 69
324 30 10 21 14 11 6 60
325 29 16 22 14 10 4 63
326 29 8 23 15 6 6 58
327 34 7 24 18 8 5 64
328 35 9 19 15 8 5 64
329 25 12 26 18 11 6 61
330 21 17 18 15 3 7 60
331 36 15 18 17 7 3 71
332 36 17 19 15 9 5 73
333 21 19 23 16 10 6 62
334 34 9 17 17 3 3 63
335 18 15 22 15 5 5 53
336 26 14 22 16 3 5 61
337 40 14 21 15 9 5 74
338 37 9 17 15 10 5 66
339 34 15 18 16 3 6 71
340 22 10 21 14 12 5 51
341 35 12 17 16 7 4 67
342 17 14 22 17 6 8 56
343 29 15 22 15 10 6 65
344 33 16 22 17 7 3 69
345 29 15 18 16 5 4 64
346 21 8 22 14 5 7 50
347 30 21 19 17 6 5 73
348 44 17 17 14 3 4 79
349 32 8 21 16 8 6 62
350 25 14 26 16 6 7 62
351 27 10 20 15 9 7 59
352 32 19 16 16 11 7 74
353 44 19 21 17 7 7 87
354 40 17 25 17 8 5 79
355 46 12 20 15 4 5 78
356 40 9 23 15 5 5 69
357 36 19 17 16 13 4 75
358 33 10 27 15 9 5 63
359 20 13 17 13 7 5 51
360 23 11 23 15 8 6 55
361 28 17 22 17 9 6 68
362 39 9 25 17 7 5 70
363 30 10 19 15 9 6 61
364 22 12 19 14 4 7 55
365 31 17 21 16 5 5 69
366 30 12 19 15 7 4 61
367 39 12 18 16 8 5 72
368 35 15 19 14 3 7 71
369 38 12 17 18 6 3 71
370 26 14 19 16 6 4 60
371 30 22 25 14 5 4 70
372 26 12 22 15 8 5 58
373 26 16 22 19 7 3 64
374 26 19 19 15 6 5 65
375 40 11 17 16 10 6 73
376 40 11 18 16 4 5 72
377 35 13 18 17 6 7 72
378 23 18 25 16 6 3 60
379 25 14 17 18 9 7 64
380 24 11 21 16 6 5 56
381 30 14 23 16 10 5 65
382 40 17 25 18 5 6 81
383 35 7 17 16 9 4 62
384 22 12 18 14 6 3 51
385 35 15 22 15 4 6 71
386 34 22 20 14 4 3 73
387 23 13 19 18 5 5 59
388 22 20 21 16 8 6 64
389 47 17 20 15 7 5 84
390 30 16 25 18 6 8 72
391 30 17 20 15 4 5 67
392 40 23 25 15 6 4 82
393 41 11 18 14 8 5 71
394 32 11 24 13 5 5 61
395 38 14 22 15 9 5 72
396 30 10 19 18 11 4 62
397 34 11 22 16 9 6 67
398 43 19 23 15 6 3 80
399 28 13 19 18 9 5 64
400 38 15 23 15 10 3 71
401 38 21 23 17 8 6 82
402 45 12 22 16 8 5 78
403 32 16 16 17 4 5 70
404 24 15 25 16 5 4 59
405 30 12 25 15 4 5 62
406 34 13 17 16 2 7 70
407 39 23 21 15 3 5 82
408 19 21 20 16 8 6 62
409 30 13 19 17 5 5 65
410 24 12 20 16 7 7 59
411 36 14 21 14 7 3 67
412 28 21 25 14 12 3 66
413 34 11 23 17 12 4 66
414 37 13 26 17 7 4 71
415 23 13 21 14 6 4 54
416 30 17 18 18 9 5 70
417 22 16 20 16 4 5 59
418 19 15 25 17 6 4 55
419 25 13 20 17 4 6 61
420 23 17 19 15 3 5 60
421 37 10 23 17 11 4 68
422 26 11 21 15 6 5 57
423 28 12 20 16 7 2 58
424 30 10 19 17 7 6 63
425 26 18 21 15 8 5 64
426 30 18 19 16 9 2 66
427 32 12 22 14 7 3 61
428 22 13 21 16 8 5 56
429 34 15 20 17 5 8 74
430 33 12 25 16 14 4 65
431 24 17 25 15 9 4 60
432 30 13 20 14 5 2 59
433 31 19 20 15 5 7 72
434 45 11 21 16 7 5 77
435 30 12 25 16 10 5 63
436 29 14 22 14 9 6 63
437 39 15 18 18 3 6 78
438 37 8 18 18 12 4 67
439 40 10 20 17 4 6 73
440 35 10 24 16 8 5 66
441 20 10 26 18 4 5 53
442 42 11 21 16 7 5 74
443 39 10 20 17 7 5 71
444 22 11 20 18 6 4 55
445 24 22 22 17 7 5 68
446 26 13 25 15 3 3 57
447 35 19 21 16 5 6 76
448 27 11 25 16 4 3 57
449 18 12 19 15 6 4 49
450 24 7 20 15 6 6 52
451 29 12 20 14 4 4 59
452 31 15 16 15 8 3 64
453 29 9 22 18 8 4 60
454 31 18 20 16 11 4 69
455 27 13 18 16 11 3 59
456 18 17 19 18 6 7 60
457 27 13 18 18 3 5 63
458 34 7 21 14 5 6 61
459 46 9 19 17 11 5 77
460 32 12 19 18 4 6 68
461 24 12 25 17 7 5 58
462 38 11 17 17 9 5 71
463 44 12 19 16 11 6 78
464 40 14 26 16 9 5 75
465 29 17 21 15 6 5 66
466 34 15 25 16 10 5 70
467 28 9 27 15 8 3 55
468 26 15 23 19 3 4 64
469 33 13 19 15 6 5 66
470 20 10 23 15 6 5 50
471 19 15 25 17 6 7 58
472 21 21 22 18 5 6 66
473 42 14 20 18 4 3 77
474 28 17 19 17 7 6 68
475 28 18 22 17 6 5 68
476 30 18 20 16 6 6 70
477 38 23 25 17 5 5 83
478 36 17 22 16 7 6 75
479 32 14 18 15 4 6 67
480 34 11 24 15 7 5 65
481 35 14 19 15 4 5 69
482 26 22 21 17 5 6 71
483 24 13 20 17 4 5 59
484 34 8 17 16 5 7 65
485 28 14 21 17 3 6 65
486 26 9 19 16 3 6 57
487 26 13 21 16 8 6 61
488 40 10 19 17 7 8 75
489 37 18 24 16 11 6 77
490 35 13 20 17 5 6 71
491 41 16 21 15 8 6 78
492 27 18 25 17 10 6 68
493 27 13 21 17 8 7 64
494 29 19 22 18 5 6 72
495 31 16 26 15 11 6 68
496 34 14 19 14 5 5 67
497 39 17 21 15 9 5 76
498 39 10 24 16 13 7 72
499 24 12 18 19 11 6 61
500 34 15 20 14 10 4 67
501 38 9 23 17 7 6 70
502 42 12 18 16 8 5 75
503 22 21 19 15 12 5 63
504 19 20 19 17 8 5 61
505 42 15 24 16 5 4 77
506 31 20 27 14 10 5 70
507 35 23 20 16 9 6 80
508 32 12 18 15 3 6 65
509 44 13 21 17 9 6 80
510 39 13 24 16 9 6 74
511 26 12 22 14 4 4 56
512 31 12 21 17 6 4 64
513 30 12 24 15 10 4 61
514 36 21 25 16 4 7 80
515 46 10 19 17 4 7 80
516 39 16 24 16 7 5 76
517 32 7 22 16 7 4 59
518 17 9 17 17 5 5 48
519 41 8 19 17 7 4 70
520 39 14 21 16 3 6 75
521 32 10 24 16 10 3 61
522 21 14 25 13 10 6 54
523 39 19 20 17 5 6 81
524 34 16 23 17 5 6 73
525 26 18 20 17 7 5 66
526 35 10 19 14 6 5 64
527 31 22 18 15 5 5 73
528 27 10 20 15 7 5 57
529 41 11 26 16 10 5 73
530 24 14 21 16 5 4 58
531 35 23 23 17 5 3 78
532 28 15 23 18 5 6 67
533 19 13 22 15 7 6 53
534 30 13 21 16 7 5 64
535 23 17 23 13 8 4 57
536 22 11 19 18 8 3 54
537 19 17 26 18 6 5 59
538 20 12 21 16 4 4 52
539 30 13 20 16 9 5 64
540 32 22 21 16 4 4 74
541 30 13 19 17 11 5 65
542 29 20 21 15 10 6 70
543 35 13 19 17 9 5 70
544 29 12 23 13 8 6 60
545 27 9 20 14 6 2 52
546 33 21 20 16 3 3 73
547 26 11 22 16 4 3 56
548 34 14 18 17 7 7 72
549 25 14 18 14 5 7 60
550 32 11 20 15 8 4 62
551 30 13 20 19 3 6 68
552 28 14 21 17 3 5 64
553 23 16 18 15 11 7 61
554 25 12 22 17 8 6 60
555 27 17 23 16 13 7 67
556 25 11 18 17 4 5 58
557 25 12 22 18 7 5 60
558 33 9 24 17 5 5 64
559 23 10 19 17 10 5 55
560 29 13 18 16 4 3 61
561 27 15 20 18 6 5 65
562 31 22 19 15 7 6 74
563 40 11 21 15 4 5 71
564 29 17 21 18 7 7 71
565 31 18 24 16 8 4 69
566 42 10 22 16 13 4 72
567 30 13 20 15 8 6 64
568 33 13 21 15 10 6 67
569 27 17 18 17 4 5 66
570 22 14 19 17 5 7 60
571 28 13 22 17 12 5 63
572 33 8 27 16 6 6 63
573 23 17 20 18 5 7 65
574 36 14 22 15 5 4 69
575 40 16 18 17 8 4 77
576 25 18 20 15 6 8 66
577 22 11 24 17 9 5 55
578 29 21 19 17 9 5 72
579 33 7 20 16 2 4 60
580 30 11 20 16 4 7 64
581 27 11 19 17 7 4 59
582 33 13 22 14 8 5 65
583 30 11 22 15 3 7 63
584 29 16 21 15 9 4 64
585 36 7 19 15 8 5 63
586 41 13 21 16 6 6 76
587 33 9 22 17 11 6 65
588 35 15 23 16 8 4 70
589 32 19 19 15 3 5 71
590 26 20 17 15 5 8 69
591 28 18 21 17 4 3 66
592 33 8 24 16 8 7 64
593 33 20 19 15 8 4 72
594 29 16 20 14 6 4 63
595 41 10 23 16 11 5 72
596 26 8 19 17 5 6 57
597 26 18 18 14 4 3 61
598 18 14 20 14 7 7 53
599 38 10 24 17 13 5 70
600 34 13 20 18 7 4 69
601 32 17 20 18 9 6 73
602 29 17 26 15 7 6 67
603 43 8 24 16 11 6 73
604 29 9 28 13 8 5 56
605 25 8 28 15 9 7<

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