Please consider the following time series data.

Week123456Value191114101613(a)

Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

The data appear to follow a trend pattern.

The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern.

The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern.

The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern.

(b)

Develop the three-week moving average for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)

WeekTime Series

ValueForecast119211314410516613

Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

MSE =

What is the forecast for week 7?

(c)

Use= 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series.

WeekTime Series

ValueForecast119211314410516613

Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

MSE =

What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

(d)

Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using= 0.2.

Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain.

The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the smoothing approach using= 0.2.

The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach using= 0.2.

The exponential smoothing using= 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the three-week moving average approach.

The exponential smoothing using= 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the three-week moving average approach.

(e)

Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficientthat results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for= 0.2.

=

Please give explanations to your answers. Thanks!