Question: please do use paper to answer Question (3): Answer the following problem: (10 marks) The owners of a bakery have determined that they need to
please do use paper to answer
Question (3): Answer the following problem: (10 marks) The owners of a bakery have determined that they need to expand their facility in order to meet their increased demand for baked goods. The decision is whether to expand now with a large facility or expand small. The owners have estimated the following chances for demand: - The likelihood of demand being high is 0.70. - The likelihood of demand being low is 030 . Profits for each alternative have been estimated as follows: - Large expansion has an estimated profitability of either $80000 or $50000 depending on whether demand turns out to be high or low. - Small expansion has a profitability of $40000, assuming demand is low. - Small expansion with an occurrence of high demand would require considering whether to expand further. If the bakery expands at this point the profitability is to be $50000, if does not expand further, the profitability is expected to be $30000. 2 Required: a- Draw a decision tree showing the decisions, chance events, and their probabilities, as well as the profitability of outcomes. ( 4 marks) b. Compute the expected value of the small and large expansions. ( 6 marks)
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