Please explain well without using any excel or those kind of tools

The Center for Middle Eastern Studles complete a research regarding interest of USA and Iran in IRAQ and mass protest in Bagdad. The research put forward some probability of likely outcome and the effect of those outcome on local and internal business and Iraqi Stock Exchange (ISX). It expect the instability of Iraq and conflict between USA and Iran to deteriorate further in 2020 and 2021. This conflict will add to instability of Iraq's security and economy. None of the outcome the research projected in the short term was beneficiary to the economy. The research made big assumption to measure the development of the economy by how well ISX will do. The following is the summer of the likelihood of what would happen. Current value of ISX 450 - There is 15% chance of new election in Iraq and the new government start to reduce corruption and stabillizes the country, then 15X increase to 550 points - There is 35% chance of new election in Iraq and the new government will be weak and can't rise up to the expectation of Iraql's people, then ISX increase to 480 points - There is 20% chance of new election in Iraq and it takes long time to form a government, instability increase little improvement to reduce corruption, then ISX will decrease to 410 points - There is 20% chance of that violent continue no new election, then ISX will drop 400 to points - There is 10% chance of that violent continue and sectarian start and civil war in Iraq, hen ISX will drop to 250 What is the expected return and risk to invest in 15X