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3. Discuss your reaction for the following representativeness bias scenarios Question 1: Jim is an ex-college baseball player. After he graduated from college, Jim became a physical education teacher. Jim has two sons, both of whom are excellent athletes. Which is more likely? a. Jim coaches a local Little League team. b. Jim coaches a local Little League team and plays softball with the local softball team. Question 2: Consider the two sequences of coin-toss results shown. Assume that an unbiased coin has been used. Which of the sequences pictured do you think is more likely: A or B? 2. Discuss your reaction for the following confirmation bias scenarios Question 1: Suppose you have invested in a security after some careful research. Now, you see a press release that states that the company you've invested in may have a problem with its main product line. The second paragraph, however, describes a completely new product that the company might debut later this year. What is your natural course of action? a. I will typically take notice of the new product announcement and research that item further. b. I will typically take notice of the problem with the company's product line and research that item further. Question 2: Suppose you have invested in a security after some careful research. The investment appreciates in value but not for the reason you predicted (e.g., you were enticed by some buzz surrounding a new product, but resurgence by an older product line ultimately buoyed the stock). What is your natural course of action? a. Since the company did well, I am not concerned. The shares I've selected have generated a profit. This confirms that the stock was a good investment. b. Although I am pleased, I am concerned about the investment. I will do further research to confirm the logic behind my position. 1. Discuss your reaction for the following conservatism bias scenarios Question 1: Suppose that you live in Baltimore, Maryland, and you make a forecast such as, "I think it will be a snowy winter this year." Furthermore, suppose that, by mid-February, you realize that no snow has fallen. What is your natural reaction to this information? a. There's still time to get a lot of snow, so my forecast is probably correct. b. There still may be time for some snow, but I may have erred in my forecast. c. My experience tells me that my forecast was probably incorrect. Most of the winter has elapsed; therefore, the cumulative amount of snow is not likely to be significant. Question 2: When you recently hear news that has potentially negative implications for the price of an investment you own, what is your natural reaction to this information? a. I tend to ignore the information. Because I have already made the investment, I've already determined that the company will be successful. b. I will reevaluate my reasons for buying the stock, but I will probably stick with it because I usually stick with my original determination that a company will be successful. c. I will reevaluate my reasoning for buying the stock and will decide, based on an objective consideration of all the facts, what to do next