Question: Please help me understand step by step. please and thank you. Etobicoke Development Corporation EDC purchased land not far from the intersection of Dundas Street

Please help me understand step by step. please

Please help me understand step by step. pleasePlease help me understand step by step. pleasePlease help me understand step by step. pleasePlease help me understand step by step. please

Please help me understand step by step. please and thank you.

Etobicoke Development Corporation EDC purchased land not far from the intersection of Dundas Street West and Kipling Avenue. The top managers of EDC, however, have different opinions on how this land can be used. Eventually, EDC commissioned preliminary architectural drawings for three different projects: High-Rise Condos; LowRise Condos; Townhouse Complex. Also, it is recognized that the financial success of the project depends on the situation on the real estate market, Strong Demand or Weak Demand. The EDC expectations are summarized in the following table (payoffs are in $ millions). Originally, EDC specialists counted on 0.62 probability of strong demand. Simple Decision Tree Part (a) Suppose that you need to construct a simple decision tree that shows the logical sequence of the decision problem. Select the correct sketch of the decision tree based on the information above. Note that P(S)= probability of strong demand, P(W)= probability of weak demand. Also, we use the following notations: P1= Payoff 1,P2= Payoff 2,P3= Payoff 3,P4= Payoff 4,P5= Payoff 5,P6= Payoff 6. P(S)=0.62,P(W)=0 P1=25,P2=10,P3=15,P4=5,P5=10,P6=8 P(S)=0.38,P(W)=0.62 P1=25,P2=15,P3=10,P4=10,P5=5,P6=8 P(S)=0.62,P(W)=0.38 P1=25,P2=10,P3=15,P4=5,P5=10,P6=8 P1=25,P2=10,P3=15,P4=5,P5=10,P6=8 None of the above. (b) Using the sketch from the previous question and TreePlan, construct a simple decision tree. Based on the simple decision tree answer the following questions. Keep 2 decimal places in the EMV answers. - Find the expected monetary value for High-Rise Condos decision. EMV( High-Rise Condos) = - Find the expected monetary value for Low-Rise Condos decision. EMV( Low-Rise Condos )= - Find the expected monetary value for Townhouse Complex decision. EMV(Townhouse Complex) = (c) Using the simple decision tree determine the best decision policy. Construct High-Rise Condos if the demand is strong. Support Townhouse Complex project if the demand is strong. Go ahead with Low-Rise Condos project if the demand is strong. Construct High-Rise Condos. Support Townhouse Complex project. Go ahead with Low-Rise Condos project. None of the above. Revised Decision Tree Part The recent dramatic increase of the prime interest rate and still uncertain situation with COVID-19 affected the company's plans. Etobicoke Development Corporation managers are thinking about hiring Adobigok Research Group (ARG) to conduct a market research. Then, ARG would come up with either favorable report predicting strong demand, or unfavorable report predicting weak demand on the real estate market. It is known that in 90% of cases when strong demand took place, ARG had predicted it correctly. It is also known that in 86% of cases when weak demand occurred, ARG had predicted it correctly. ARG specialists need a month to complete their analysis, and they have to use expensive software, supercomputers, and hire additional computer and logistics analysts. (d) Suppose that you need to construct a revised decision tree. First, fill in the following revised probability tables for the favorable and unfavorable reports. Round joint probability values, P (Favorable), P (Unfavorable), and the posterior probability values to 4 decimals places. Probability Revisions given a Favorable Report Probability Revisions given an Unfavorable Report (e) Using the revised probability tables, please identify the revised/posterior probabilities which you are going to use in the revised decision tree: (f) Now you start constructing the revised decision tree. Select the correct sketch of the leftmost part of the revised decision tree based on the information above. (g) Construct the revised decision tree and answer the following questions. Round all EMV answers to 2 decimal places. - In case of favorable report, EMV(High-Rise Condos) = EMV( Low-Rise Condos) = EMV( Townhouse Complex) = - In case of unfavorable report, EMV(High-Rise Condos )= EMV( Low-Rise Condos )= EMV( Townhouse Complex) = - In the revised decision tree, there are the expected monetary values EMV( Hire )= EMV( Do not hire )= (h) Based on the revised decision tree formulate the optimal decision policy. Note that in each key word you have to use the scroll-down menu to select the correct option. If you recommend not hiring ARG, please select N/A in case of favorable/unfavorable report. Adobigok Research Group. If their report is favorable, then choose the [St ahead with the (i) How much would Etobicoke Development Corporation be willing to pay at most for the information about future economic conditions? If you recommend not hiring ARG, please enter zero in the answer cell. Keep 2 decimal places in the following answer. EDC can pay up to (in $ millions) (j) How efficient the ARG information would be? If you recommend not hiring ARG, please enter zero in the answer cell. Round your answer to 1 decimal place. Efficiency = %

Step by Step Solution

There are 3 Steps involved in it

1 Expert Approved Answer
Step: 1 Unlock blur-text-image
Question Has Been Solved by an Expert!

Get step-by-step solutions from verified subject matter experts

Step: 2 Unlock
Step: 3 Unlock

Students Have Also Explored These Related General Management Questions!