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Lisa Guppy and Kelsey Anderson Global Water Crisis The Facts

Water is a foundation of life and livelihoods and is 'kyto sustainable development. Successful water managemerit will serve as a foundation for the achievement of many of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), -as'Well as for SDG 6which is to "Ensure availability and - Sustainable management of water and sanitation for all." Despite this, water is becoming a pressing societal and geopolitical issuein-some regions, it is already of critical national concern. "Business as usual" will mean the world will miss water-related SDGs by a wide margin; percent of the world's population will be living ously water-stressed areas by 2035; and the ability of.ecosystems to provide fresh water supplies will become

*in-cieasingly compromised. total of 60 percent of fresh water comes from river bsins that cross national borders. Transboundary water *ggements need to be robust enough to deal with increas .ngl uncertain environmental and climatic conditions, zan&the social and demographic changes that will raise :glQBal population to 9.7 billion by 2050 and double the hmber of people who live in urban areas. Different conceptualizations of water can and have to conflict. The perception of water as a human right -and a common public and environmental good is often

-np sed by the view of water as a commodity that needs e priced to ensure efficient and sustainable use. Not -only nations but provinces and communities will need to align water perspectives to allow f peaceful and effec-

iEive integrated water resource management and sustain *able use.

Effective management will mean tackling neglected such as water wastage in current systems, which has ftyeen estimated to be up to 30 percent; common institu Onal dysfunction, unethical practices, poor accountabil , and corruption in the water sectors of many countries. report highlights looming water crises from six contexts: water scarcity and insecurity, water*Etelated disasters, water, sanitation and health (WASH) crisis, water infrastructure deterioration and destruction, unsustainable development, and ecosystem degradation. UN agencies, governments, and civil societies have made clear that radical new approaches to water are needed to reverse these sobering water trends. Only by facing these crises in an intelligent and cohesive way will water continue to support life, development, and biodiversity for our children and our future. A total of 112 million people were affected by floods 20052015, 1.8 billion people now use a source of drinking water contaminated by faces 40 percent gap between water demand and water available by 2030, 80 percent or more wastewater returns to the environment without adequate treatment, 30 percent of global water abstraction

is lost through leakage. US$114 billion per year or more than three times the current level of capital investment is needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal 6 targets on water supply, sanitation, and hygiene (6.1 and 6.2). The amount of money needed to meet the other targets of the "water goal" is currently unknown.

12.6 million deaths were attributable to the environment globally in 2012. Water Scarcity and Insecurity

The notion that water is plentifulit covers 70 percent of the planetis false, as only 2.5 percent of all water is

3:GUppy, Lisa, Anderson, Kelsey. "Global Water Crisis: The Facts," United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health, 2017. COpyright 02017 by United Nations. All rights reserved. Used with permission. freshwater. This limited resource will need to support a projected population of 9.7 billion in 2050; and by that date, an estimated 3.9 billionor over 40 percent of the world's populationwill live in severely water-stressed river basins.

It is not just population that is pressuring water resources. Excessive use is also evident: the global population tripled in the twentieth century, but the use of water increased six-fold. Between now and 2050, water demands are expected to increase by 400 percent from manufacturing and by 130 percent from household use. As water availability decreases, competition for access to this limited resource will increase. A total of 60 percent of all surface freshwater comes-from internationally shared river basins, and there are an estimated 592 transboundary aquifers. Continuing cooperation and coordination between nations is crucial to ensuring water is available for human, economic, and environmental needs. Although hundreds of international water agreements have been signed over time, how countries will cooperatively manage growing resource pressures so that they do not lead to more conflicts over water is not often clear. Water insecurity can be exacerbated by drought. More people are affected by drought than any other disaster type. In 2016, 411 million people in total were affected by disasters and 94 percent of those were drought affected. Droughts are also the costliest disasters, with significant impacts on agriculture in particular; droughts cause an average US$68 billion worth of losses in agriculture in the United States annually. In China, drought has resulted in an annual grain production loss of more than 27 million tons over the last two decades; and from the 1950s to the beginning of this century, the annual average crop area suffering from drought has expanded from 11.6 million hectares to 25.1 million hectares, an increase of 116 percent. If water were secured for irrigated agriculture, the potential global welfare gain for reduced risk in 2010 would have been US$94 billion. Findings also show that enhanced water security can help stabilize food crop production and prices. In a water secure scenario, the probability of global wheat production falling below 650 million tons per year is reduced from 83 percent to 38 percent. There has been a drop 55 percent in globally avail- able freshwater per capita since 1960. By 2030, global demand for water is expected to grow by 50 percent. Water scarcity currently affects more than 40 percent of the global population. By 2050, an additio 2.3 billion people can be expected to be living in areas with severe waterstress, especially in North and South Africa and South and Central Asia. Seventy percent Agriculture accounts for of all water withdrawals globally and for over 90 percent in the majority of least developed countries and 70 percent more food will be needed by 2050. Water scarcity, exacerbated by cli- mate change, could cost some regions up to 6 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP). The 5th assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that for each degree of global warming, approximately 7 percent of the global population two decades. Water-related ecosystems can mitigate water-relate disasters. Every hectare of mangrove and coastal marsh i worth up to US$15,161 a year in disaster-related services and coastal wetlands helped to avoid more than US$6? million in damages from Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Cor

reefs act as wave barriers, and as an example of their effef tiveness in risk reduction, spending US$I million a y

on restoring reefs at the Folkestone Marine Park on th

west coast of Barbados could lower annual storm losse

there by US$20 million. Despite these risk reduction benefits, water-relat ecosystems globally are in decline. In parts of Asia and th will be exposed to a decrease in renewable water resourcef of at least 20 percent. Worldwide, the total cost of water insecurity to thf global economy is estimated at US$50ff billion annually. Including environmental impacts, this figure may rise to 1 percent of global GDP. Water-Related Disasters It is vital to protect investments in water-related infrastructure from shocks and stresses. In 2009, the World Bank estimated that by 2030, around half the Bank's water sector portfoliowhich was then US$8.8 billion committed and US$11.3 billion in pipelinewould be at high to medium risk of exposure to climate change impacts. In addition, hydrologic hazards are leading to significant deaths, displacements, and injuries. Up to 90 percent of all disasters are water-related, and over the last two decades, floods have been the most frequent global natural disaster; in 2016, 50 percent of all recorded events were related to flooding. The total value of all assets that are at risk of flooding by 2050 is predicted to be US$45 trillion: rise of over 340 percent from 2010. Between 1970 and 2010, the world's population increased by 87 percent, from 3.7 billion to 6.9 billion. During the same period, the annual average population exposed to flood increased by 112 percentfrom 33,3 t? 70.4 million per year. By 2050, rising populations in flood-prone lands, cl\mate change, deforestation, loss of wetlands, and rising sea levels can be expected to increase the number of people vulnerable to flood disaster to 2 billion. The UN was prompted to release warnings about

urban flash floods after hundreds died in Guatemala, thg United States, and southern France in 2015stating th under a changing climate, intense rainfall, and urbanization have made these disasters more common in the last Americas, up to half of all coastal mangrove ecosystems have been degraded or destroyed. Water-related disasters account for 70 percent of all deaths related to natural disasters. Worldwide flood damage amounted to over US$50 billion in 2013 and is increasing. More than 107,000 people died due to hydrological disasters (floods and landslides) between 2000 and 2016. Several studies estimate that by 2050 between 150 and 200 million people could be displaced as a conse-

quence of phenomena, such as desertification, sea-level rise, and increased extreme weather events. Floods and landslides have cost an estimated between 2000 and 2016.35 Water, Sanitation, and Health

(WASH) Crisis Although progress has been made in supplying drinking water to more people year on year, 663 million people still lack "improved" drinking water sources in 2015and for many people, this "improved" water is not always safe, reliable, affordable, or accessible with equity. For example, around 45 million people in Bangladesh drink water that contains

arsenic concentraons greater than VVHO standards allow. Sanitation and hygiene have made less progress, with 2.4 billion people lacking improved sanitation facilities. Equity in sanitation and hygiene access is of particular concern. Seven of 10 people without improved sanitation facilities, and nine of 10 people still practicing open defecation, live in rural areas; and a lack of these services often disproportionately affect women and girls who can not only suffer health repercussions but personal danger when services are not available and not secure. Diarrheal diseases, longassociated with poor water and sanitation, account for one in nine child deaths worldwide, making diarrhea the third leading cause of death among children under the age of five. Poor water, s tation, and hygiene are major contributors to neglected pical diseases such as schistosomiasis, trachoma, and intestinal worms, which affect more than 1.5 billion people every year. It is not only households that lack adequate services: in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), work- places, schools, and health facilities also lack WASH. In a 2015 survey of LNfICs, 38 percent of health facilities did not have an improved water source, 35 percent did not have soap and water for handwashing and 19 percent did not have improved sanitation. The lack of universal WASH in schools costs an estimated 1,863 million days of school attendnce globally. The WASH crisis does not only affect low-income countries. In Canada, there are approximately 5,000 homes in First Nations communities that lack basic water and sewage services. Compared to other Canadians, First Nations' homes are 90 times more likely to be without running water. If radical change is not affected, universal water, sanitation, and hygieneas described in SDG targets 6.1 and 6.2will not be reached. A World Bank report found that capital investments must increase by approximately three times to achieve the water supply, Sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) targets globally. Another study has estimated that WASH efforts will need to exceed current trends by almost four times to achieve SDG 6.1 and 6.2 by 2030. Unsafe water, poor sanitation, and hygiene cause approximately 3.5 million deaths worldwide; the latter estimate represents 25 percent of the deaths of children younger than 14. 2.4 billion peoplemore than 1/3 of the global populationdo not use improved sanitation facilities.

One in 10 people has no choice but to defecate in the open. Globally, approximately US$260 billion is zlost each year to the effects of poor sanitation and unsafe water on many aspects of the economy but most significantly on health care. In India, the time spent-looking for a toilet or find- ing some where to go in the open costs the economy over US$ 10 billion every year in lost productivity20 percent of GDP. One thousand children die each day due to preventable water and sanitation-related diseases. Water Infrastructure Deterioration

and Destruction Under the Millennium Development Goals, many popu- lations counted as being "served" by water supply actually were allocated to systems that had failed. Although there may be as many as 60,000 new handpumps being constructed in Africa every year, a 2007 study found -36 percent of hand pumps across 21 countries in sub-Saharan Africa were not functional. This represents a loss of between US$1.2 and 1.5 billion in investments. The total cost to water utilities worldwide caused by "nonrevenue water"a combination of physical and commercial losseshas been conservatively estimated at US$ 141 billion per year. In developing countries, approxi- mately 45 million cubic meters per day are lost through water infrastructure leakageenough to serve nearly 200 68 Taking Sides: Clashing Views on Global Issues, 10/e million people. This problem will only get worse if water infrastructure is not maintained properly, even for highincome countries; for example, the capital investment needed to maintain aging water infrastructure in the United States will reach an estimated US$195 billion in 2040, but if current funding trends continue, needs will be underfunded by US$ 144 billion. Until the SDGs began in 2015, there was .far less international focus on infrastructure and processes for wastewater treatment, water recycling, and water efficiency, with significant negative impacts in many areas. For example, poorly treated wastewater is used for agriculture in many low-income countries, but children (812 years) in areas using wastewater have been shown to have a 75 percent prevalence rate for gastroenteritis, compared to 13 percent in areas using freshwater, bringing a 73 percent higher health cost per child in areas using wastewater. i The failure of water systems is often considered a governance issue. In the water sector, the fragmentation of actors and of accountabilities hinders and undermines transparency and economic efficiency and opens doors for corruption. Institutional dysfunction, unethical practices, opaque decision-making, poor accountability, and corruption are reportedly common, but difficult to quantify. Water infrastructure that is damaged deliberately can also have tremendous local impacts. For example, one air strike in December 2016 in Syria cut water supplies for 3.5 million people and, while some pumping was restored relatively quickly, 1.4 million had continued reduced supply. Since 2011, water and water infrastructure have been used as a military target in Syria, Ukraine, India, Israel, Yemen, Libya, Afghanistan, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, Sudan, and Iraq. In low-income countries, only 8 percent of industrial and municipal wastewater undergoes treatment of any kind. In lower middle-income countries, only 28 percent of wastewater is treated. Globally, it has beemestimated that between 5 and 20 million hectares of land are irrigated with untreated wastewater. Unsustainable Development While the effectiveness of water management varies dramatically between countries, a rapid scale-up in effort and resources will be needed for most countries to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 6 and to support other waterrelated or water-impacted SDGs. A 2016 study wrote that "the longer governments take to act, the harder it will be to deliver on their promises by 2030," and that overall, every 3 years of inaction will mean that the amount of effort needed to succeed will increase exponentially. Beyond SDG 6the "water goal"water is fundamental to life and livelihoods. The success of SDG 6 will underpin progress in many other goals, including those for human health, universal education, and urban progress. Water security is fundamental to poverty alleviation, and water resource management impacts almost all aspects of economic activity, including food production and security, industry, energy production, and transport. However, these human activities often degrade water resources. Two million tons of human waste are disposed of in water courses every day; 1518 billion m3 of freshwater resources are contaminated by fossil fuel production every year; and the food sector contributes 40 and 54 percent to the production of organic water pollutants in high-income and low-income countries, respectively. Severe pathogenic pollution affects around 1/3 of all rivers, severe organic pollution around 1/7 of all rivers, and severe and moderate salinity pollution around 1/10 of all river stretches in Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

To move beyond simply "ticking off" sustainability indicators to true sustainability in the water sector, Member States must consider the full cost of water and the services it provides. A 20C rise in global average temperature could mean additional water-related costs between US$13.7 billion and US$19.2 billion per year from 2020 to 2050, mostly through water supply and flood management. Wastewaterrelated emissions of methane and

nitrous oxide could rise by 50 percent and 25 percent, respectively, between 1990 and 2020. Regionally, the global limit of ecological sustainability of water available for abstraction is reported to have been exceeded for about 1/3 of the human population. This will rise to about half of the human population by 2030. Of the world's 263 transboundary basins, more than 60 percent lack any type of cooperative management framework. Wealthier diets cost water: Producing 1 kg of rice requires around 3,500 L of water, while 1 kg of beef costs 15,000 L. Ecosystem Degradation

All freshwater ultimately depends on the continued, healthy functioning of ecosystems. Recognizing the water cycle as a biophysical process is essential to achieving sustainable water management and securing the ecosystem services that humans rely on. The water-related services provided by tropical forests include the regulation of water flows, waste treatment, and Water purification and erosion prevention; these collectively account for a value of up to US$7,236 per hectare per yearmore than 44 percent of the total value of forests, exceeding the values of carbon storage, food, timber, and recreation and tourism services combined. Despite this, between 1997 and 2011, US$4.320.2 trillion per year worth of ecosystem services were lost due to land-use change. Freshwater ecosystems themselves provide more than US$75 billion in goods and ecosystem services for people annually; they also sustain a disproportionately large number of species, including a quarter of all known vertebrates. However, wetlands are being increasingly threatened by a host of problems. Since 1900, 64 percent of the world's wetlands have disappeared. This degradation has been valued at US$20 trillion in lost ecosystem services annually. According to some estimates, the populations of freshwater species declined by 76 percent between 1970 and 2010. Nearly, 1/3 of the world's amphibians are at risk of extinction and in some regions, more than 50 percent of native freshwater fish species are at risk of extinction. Wetlands are also carbon sinks. Peatlandslands with peat at the surfacecover only 3 percent of the Earth's land surface, but store nearly double the carbon than all the world's forests combined, if they are kept wet. An overall loss of 15 percent of peatlands has been reported, which translates to a contribution of 5 percent of all global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. Almost

half (45 percent) of the peatlands in the Nordic and Baltic States have been drained and emit almost 80 megatons of carbon dioxide annuallywhich is 25 percent of the total carbon dioxide emissions of these countries. It is estimated that the number of people living in environments with high-water quality risks due to excessive biochemical oxygen demand will affect 1/5 of the global population in 2050, while people facing risks from excessive nitrogen and phosphorous will increase to 1/3 of the global population over the same period. Eutrophication of surface water and coastal zones is expected to increase almost everywhere until 2030. Globally, the number of lakes with harmful algal blooms will increase by at least 20 percent until 2050. Inefficient use of water for crop production has caused salinization of 20 percent of the global irrigated land area. There has been a 30 percent decline in biodiversity health since 1970. Between US$4.3 and US$20.2 trillion per year worth of ecosystem services were lost between 1997. and 2011 due to land-use change.

LISA GUPPY is Project Officer at the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health in Hamilton, Canada.

KELSEY ANDERSON is a Communications Associate and Graphic Designer at the United Nations University.