Question: PLEASE SOLVE IN EXCEL The exponential smoothing model is given by Or+1 = ay: +(1-a). where De+1 = forecast of sales for period t +
PLEASE SOLVE IN EXCEL
The exponential smoothing model is given by Or+1 = ay: +(1-a). where De+1 = forecast of sales for period t + 1 Y; = actual sales for periodt De = forecast of sales for period t a = smoothing constant, 0 s asi This model is used to predict the future based on the past data values. a. The observed values with the smoothing constant a -0.45 are given in the below table. The third column of the table displays the forecast values obtained using the above model. The forecasted error V: - Yt is calculated in the fourth column, and the square of the forecast error and the sum of squared forecast errors are given in fifth column. Construct this table in your spreadsheet model using the formula above (Hint: The first forecast value is same as the observed value.) Alpha-0,45 Squared Forecast Day Observed Value Forecast Forecast Error Error 1 15 15.00 0.0000 0.0000 2 12 15.00 -3.0000 9.0000 3 14 13.65 0.3500 0.1225 4 18 13.81 4.1925 17.5771 S 15 15.69 -0.6941 0.4818 6 16 15.38 0.6182 0,3822 7 15.66 5.3400 28,5159 8 18 18.06 -0.0630 0.0040 1 9 12 18.03 -6.0346 36.4169 10 19 15:32 3.6809 13.5494 11 22 16.98 5.0245 25.2458 12 14 19.24 -5.2365 27.4211 13 21 16.88 4.1199 16.9737 14 20 18.73 1.2660 1.6026 15 19 19.30 -0.3037 0.0922 Sum of the squared forecast 177.39 21 error b. The value of is often chosen by minimizing the sum of squared forecast errors. Use Excel Solver to find the value of that minimizes the sum of squared forecast errors
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