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Calculate the demand forecasts for period 7 using

a) Nave method (last-value forecast)

b) Moving average method: n = 2, n = 3

c) Exponential smoothing method: = 0.1 and = 0.3 (Hint: take first demand as initial forecast)

d) What would be the forecast if = 0 or = 1?

e) Consider the exponential smoothing forecasts determined in c). Determine the mean error and mean absolute deviation (MAD).

Given the historical demand of 6 periods: Period (t) Demand (dt) 1 160 2 3 4 166 185 188 179 163 5 6