Please use the data from figure $1$ to answer the following questions. Please show your work to

demonstrate the proper calculations. Round all calculations to one decimal place.

Figure $1$: Real$-$estate Loans $($billions$)($monthly$)$

Question $1(6$ points$)$

Develop forecasts using a $4-$month simple moving average, a $4-$month weighted moving average $($

$W_t=\mathrm{.}5,W_{t-1}=\mathrm{.}25,W_{t-2}=\mathrm{.}125,$ and $W_{t-3}=\mathrm{.}125),$ and an exponential smoothing forecast

$(F23=61\mathrm{.}8,F24=62\mathrm{.}5,=\mathrm{.}3)$ for periods $24$ and $25.$

Question $2(2$ points$)$

Please the error rates of the forecasts you created in the previous question using MAD and MAPE.

Actual demand for month $25$ was $62\mathrm{.}1.$

Question $3(2$ points$)$

Which forecasting method would you recommend and why?