Please use the data from figure $1$ to answer the following questions. Please show your work to demonstrate the proper calculations. Round all calculations to one decimal place.

Figure $1$: Realestate Loans $($billions$)($monthly$)$

$\backslash$table$[[$Month$,$Dud,Month,Dud$],[1,59\mathrm{.}4,13,59],[2,59\mathrm{.}8,14,59\mathrm{.}3],[3,60,15,59\mathrm{.}5],[4,60,16,59\mathrm{.}5],[5,60,3,37,59\mathrm{.}5],[6,60\mathrm{.}1,18,59\mathrm{.}7],[7,59\mathrm{.}7,19,59\mathrm{.}7],[8,59\mathrm{.}5,20,60\mathrm{.}5],[9,59\mathrm{.}4,21,60\mathrm{.}7],[10,59\mathrm{.}3,22,61\mathrm{.}3],[11,59\mathrm{.}2,23,61\mathrm{.}4],[12,59\mathrm{.}1,24,61\mathrm{.}8]]$

Question $1(6$ points$)$

Develop forecasts using a $4-$month simple moving averge, a $4-$month weighted moving average $(W_t=\mathrm{.}5,W_{t-1}=\mathrm{.}25,W_{t-2}=\mathrm{.}125,$ and $($:$W_{t-3}=\mathrm{.}125\},$ and an exponental smoothing forecast $(723=61\mathrm{.}8,524=62\mathrm{.}5,{}^{}=3)$ for periods $24$ and $25.$

Question $2(2$ points$)$

Please the error rates of the forecasts you created in the previous question using MAD and MAPE. Actual demand for month $25$ was $62\mathrm{.}1.$

Question $3(2$ points$)$

Which forecasting method would you recommend and why?