Probabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass. It is one of the best tools we have to improve the accuracy of our decisions. In a world where each moment is determined by an infinitely complex set of factors, probabilistic thinking helps us identify the most likely outcomes. When we know these our decisions can be more precise and effective. Answer choices: Occam's Razzor, Inversion, First Principles thinkning, the map is not the territory, second$-$order thinking, circle of competence, hanlon's razor, thought experiment, probilistic thinking