Question: Problem 1 (30 points). A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or

Problem 1 (30 points). A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated probabilities being 0.25,0.40, and 0.35, respectively. A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just $18,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000; it can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of $60,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000 and can be expanded to medium size to earn $60,000 or to large size to earn $125,000. A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated $25,000 if demand is low and earn $140,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of $150,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $145,000. If a large facility is built and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $220,000. If demand is average for the large facility, the present value is expected to be $125,000; if demand is low, the facility is expected to lose $60,000. Which alternative is best, according to each of the following decision criterion considering demand under uncertainty case? Note that, you only consider first step decisions for this problem. a) Maximin ( 9 points) b) Maximax (9 points) c) Minimax regret (12 points) Problem 2 ( 25 points). Draw a decision tree for the three options described in Problem 1. What should management do to achieve the highest expected payoff
Step by Step Solution
There are 3 Steps involved in it
1 Expert Approved Answer
Step: 1 Unlock
Question Has Been Solved by an Expert!
Get step-by-step solutions from verified subject matter experts
Step: 2 Unlock
Step: 3 Unlock
