Problem 15-05 (Algorithmic)

Consider the following time series data.

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6
Value	18	15	16	13	17	16

Choose the correct time series plot.

(i)		(ii)
(iii)		(iv)

Plot (ii) What type of pattern exists in the data? Horizontal Pattern Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places.

Week	Time Series Value	Forecast
1	18
2	15
3	16
4	13
5	17
6	16

MSE: The forecast for week 7: Use = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places.

Week	Time Series Value	Forecast
1	18
2	15
3	16
4	13
5	17
6	16

MSE: The forecast for week 7:

Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for = 0.2. Find a value of for the smallest MSE. Round your answer to three decimal places. =