PROBLEM #$2$: Forecasting $(25$ points$)$

Energy service provider has kept track of demand for past years $($data is provided$).$Year $2021$ Year $2022$

Month Gas Use $($A$)$ Month Gas Use $($A$)$

Jan $244$ Jan $230$

Feb $228$ Feb $245$

Mar $153$ Mar $247$

Apr $140$ Apr $135$

May $55$ May $34$

Jun $34$ Jun $33$

Jul $30$ Jul $27$

Aug $28$ Aug $26$

Sep $29$ Sep $28$

Oct $41$ Oct $39$

Nov $88$ Nov $86$

Dec $199$ Dec $188$

In an attempt to be prepared for future, the manager has asked you to undertake forecasting analysis.

On a chart, plot the actual values to examine amethod that may be suitable. $($Trend or seasonal$)$

What is your observation?

Using Trend and Seasonal forecasting models, provide forecasts. Identify $($quantitatively$)$ the model that has a better forecast accuracy. What is your conclusion.