PROBLEM 2 STATEMENT

The time advances to the end of August, 2016 The following Time Series of historical demand for a product in the past 8 months is provided to you:

Month-Year (t)	Demand (Dt)
January-16	130,000
February-16	146,000
March-16	108,500
April-16	159,500
May-16	1,375,300
June-16	640,212
July-16	757,000
August-16	1,114,000

In the following questions, you are asked to forecast demand in September, 2016 using various methods.

A)

You are asked to forecast demand in September, 2016 using the Simple Moving Average method with the "lookback" window of size n=8. Your demand forecast is: _____

(Hint: please round your answer to the whole number.)

B)

You are asked to forecast demand in September, 2016 using the Weighted Moving Average method with the "lookback" window of size n=8. Suppose that you are using the follow weight distribution:

w7	0.05
w6	0.05
w5	0.07
w4	0.08
w3	0.1
w2	0.1
w1	0.25
w0	0.3
SUM	1

Your demand forecast is: _____

(Hint: please round your answer to the whole number.)

C)

You are asked to forecast demand in September, 2016 using the Exponential Smoothing method with the "smoothing factor" =0.131. Prior forecast for demand in August, 2016 was 350,739, and you observed the true demand to be 1,114,000

Your demand forecast is: _____

(Hint: please round your answer to the whole number.)

RAW TIME SERIES DATA Demand (Dt) January-16 130,000 February-16 146,000 March-16 108,500 April-16 159,500 May-16 1,375,300 June-16 640,212 July-16 757,000 August-16 1,114,000 FORECAST USING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE "Lookback" window n= 8 Your forecast for September, 2016 = FORECAST USING WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE WITH n=8 "Lookback" window n= 8 weights w7 0.05 W6 0.05 w5 0.07 W4 0.08 W3 0.1 w2 0.1 w1 0.25 WO 0.3 SUM 1 Your forecast for September, 2016 = FORECAST USING EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Smoothing factor a= Prior forecast for August, 2016 350,739 Observed demand in August, 2016 1,114,000 Your forecast for September, 2016 =