Problem

3

.

(21 marks).

At a local university, the Student Commission on Programming and

Entertainment (SCOPE) is preparing to host its first rock concert of the school year. To

successfully produce this rock concert, SCOPE has listed the requisite activities and related

informat

ion in the following table (duration estimates measured in days).

Activity

Immediate

Predecess

or(s)

Optimistic

Most

probable

Pessimisti

c

A: Negotiate contract with selected

musicians

---

8

10

15

B: Reserve site

---

7

8

9

C: Manage travel

logistics for music

group

A

5

6

10

D: Screen & hire security personnel

B

3

3

3

E: Arrange advertising & ticketing

B,C

1

5

9

F: Hire parking staff

D

4

7

10

G: Arrange concession sales

E

3

8

10

a.

(7 marks)

Draw the project network, indicating the earliest start, earliest finish, latest start,

and latest finish day of each activity.

b.

(2 marks)

What is the expected duration and variance of the critical path?

c.

(4 marks)

Based on the critical path, what is the likelihood that the project will be

completed within 30 days?

e.

(4 marks)

Based on the critical path, what is the likelihood that the project will be

completed in more than 25 days?

d.

(4 marks)

Based on the critical path, what deadline should be set so that the likelihood of

completing the project within that deadline is 75 %?