Problem 3: (25)

Given: Project activity budgets are given with probability distributions and parameters given in the table below.

Find: (Show all calculations)

1. Run a Monte Carlo simulation of total cost using the above probability distributions and 30 runs. Plot the Histogram and cumulative distribution of total cost based on the simulation results.
2. Based on the simulation results and assuming that total project cost is normally distributed, Determine the following:
   1. Expected Cost
   2. Standard Deviation of Cost
   3. The probability that total project cost will exceed $8,500K

Probability Distribution \begin{tabular}{|l|l|r|r|} \hline \multicolumn{1}{|c|}{ Activity } & \multicolumn{1}{|l|}{Type(Parameters)} & \multicolumn{2}{c|}{ Cost Parameters } \\ \hline A) Planning \& Permitting & Normal (,) & $10.0 & $1.5 \\ \hline B) Mobilize/Temp. Utilities & Uniform (a,b) & $28.0 & $35.0 \\ \hline C) Site Survey & Normal (,) & $45.0 & $3.0 \\ \hline D) Site Clearing & Beta (2,5,A,B) & $400.0 & $700.0 \\ \hline E) Rough Grading & Beta(2,4,A,B) & $300.0 & $500.0 \\ \hline F) Underground Utilities & Normal (,) & $3,000.0 & $250.0 \\ \hline G) Finish Grading & Uniform (a,b) & $150.0 & $250.0 \\ \hline H) Base Course & Uniform(a,b) & $1,400.0 & $1,700.0 \\ \hline I) Asphalt Paving & Normal (,) & $2,500.0 & $250.0 \\ \hline J.) Loam \& Seed & Uniform (a,b) & $225.0 & $275.0 \\ \hline \end{tabular}