Problem #3: (40 points, Exponential Smoothing Powerpoint). I do Exp. Smoothing differently from the textbook. Please use my method, as the textbook method will get you wrong numbers for this problem. [A caf in Georgia] is well known for its popular homemade ice cream, made in a small plant in back of the caf. People drive all the way from Atlanta and Macon to buy the ice cream. The two women who own the caf want to develop a forecasting model so they can plan their ice cream production and determine the number of employees they need to sell ice cream in the caf. They have accumulated the following sales records for their ice cream for the past 12 quarters (3 years): alpha = .5, alpha = .3 alpha = .5 beta =.5 Simple Exp. Simple Exp. Adj. Exp. Qts Demand Smoothing Error Smoothing Error Smoothing Error SES + Trend 1 350 350 350 = 350+ 0 2 510 350 350 = 350+ 0 3 750 4 420 5 370 6 480 7 860 8 500 9 450 10 550 11 820 570 12 a) Fill out the above table, calculating SES and AES as shown. Make sure to show your work for at least Quarters 3-5 for each forecast. b) Then calculate the Errors and Average Error for me, comparing over the right data range (Hint: think about when your forecasts actually start working). Which one of these three methods has the least average error? Problem #3: (40 points, Exponential Smoothing Powerpoint). I do Exp. Smoothing differently from the textbook. Please use my method, as the textbook method will get you wrong numbers for this problem. [A caf in Georgia] is well known for its popular homemade ice cream, made in a small plant in back of the caf. People drive all the way from Atlanta and Macon to buy the ice cream. The two women who own the caf want to develop a forecasting model so they can plan their ice cream production and determine the number of employees they need to sell ice cream in the caf. They have accumulated the following sales records for their ice cream for the past 12 quarters (3 years): alpha = .5, alpha = .3 alpha = .5 beta =.5 Simple Exp. Simple Exp. Adj. Exp. Qts Demand Smoothing Error Smoothing Error Smoothing Error SES + Trend 1 350 350 350 = 350+ 0 2 510 350 350 = 350+ 0 3 750 4 420 5 370 6 480 7 860 8 500 9 450 10 550 11 820 570 12 a) Fill out the above table, calculating SES and AES as shown. Make sure to show your work for at least Quarters 3-5 for each forecast. b) Then calculate the Errors and Average Error for me, comparing over the right data range (Hint: think about when your forecasts actually start working). Which one of these three methods has the least average error