Problem #3: (40 points) Problem 11 from another forecasting textbook. The Whistle Stop Caf in Weems, Georgia is well known for its popular homemade ice cream, made in a small plant in back of the caf. People drive all the way from Atlanta and Macon to buy the ice cream. The two women who own the caf want to develop a forecasting model so they can plan their ice cream production and determine the number of employees they need to sell ice cream in the caf. They have accumulated the following sales records for their ice cream for the past 12 quarters (3 years): alpha = .3 Simple Exp. Smooth. alpha = .5 Simple Exp. Smooth 350 alpha = .5, beta = .5 Adj. Exp. Smooth 350 + 0 Quarters Error Error Error Demand 350 1 350 2 510 3 750 4 420 5 370 6 480 7 860 8 500 9 450 10 550 11 820 12 570 a) Fill out the above table, calculating SES and AES as shown. Make sure to show your work for at least Quarters 3- 5 for each forecast. b) Then calculate the Errors and Average Error for me. Which one of these three methods has the least average error? c) Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation for just Alpha = .5, Beta = .5 for me. Do the Errors mostly cancel each other out when we use Absolute Deviation on them? d) There is a specific reason why it's so difficult to properly forecast this data using Time Series approach. Explain to me in 2-4 sentences what the problem is. Hint: consider what we are trying to predict (gallons of ice cream sold)