Project Assignment BUSA $511,$ Business Analytics for Managers

The case

Considering monthly demands for the ABC Corporation as shown below.

Question

Forecast the monthly demands for Year $6$ using moving average, simple exponential smoothing, Holts' model, and Winter's model. In each case, evaluate the bias, TS$,$ MAD, MAPE, and MSE.

Project Assignment Guidance

$1.$ To answer the question above, firstly based on the monthly sales data of Year $1,2,3,4$ and $5,$ you should forecast the $12$ monthly demands of Year $6$ from January to December using "moving average", "simple exponential smoothing", "Holts' model", and "Winter's model$,$ respectively. Secondly, you should calculate the forecast$-$error indicators of bias, TS$,$ MAD, MAPE, and MSE regarding these four models. Thirdly, based on your findings, you should identify the best forecasting methods and provide your justifications.