Q$2.$ Forecasting

ABC Company is creating the production plan for the coming month. The company has collected the following data on the average marketing demand during the past $21$ months.

$\backslash$table$[[$Month$,$Demand$],[1,60],[2,65],[3,67],[4,58],[5,59],[6,56],[7,65],[8,65],[9,69],[10,65],[11,70],[12,71],[13,64],[14,75],[15,70],[16,72],[17,65],[18,77],[19,62],[20,59],[21,60]]$

a$.$ Using a three$-$month moving average, forecast demand for month $22.$

b$.$ Using a three$-$month weighted moving average with the most recent month weighted $0\mathrm{.}55,$ the next most recent month weighted $0\mathrm{.}35,$ and the third month weighted $0\mathrm{.}1,$ forecast the demand for month $22.$

c$.$ Compute an exponentially smoothed forecasting using $=0\mathrm{.}28$ and forecast the demand $22.$

d$.$ Compare the forecast in $($a$),($b$),$ and $($c$)$ using MAD. Indicate the most accurate forecasting method.

e$.$ Compute the tracking signal for the most accurate method $($based on MAD value$),$ and construct a control chart. Comment on the forecasting result.

Solve on excel spreedsheet