Question: Q 8 ( Exponential Smoothing Holts Method ) For the following time series:tY 1 3 2 5 3 9 4 2 0 5 1 2

Q8(Exponential Smoothing Holts Method)For the following time series:tY132539420512617722823952104111561275136014751588(a) Plot the time series and superimpose the linear Trend. Calculate the slope of the Trend from t=1 to t=15 and comment on whether Holts Trend adjustment method is appropriate for forecasting.[15 marks](b) Use Holts Trend adjustment method to forecast Y for t=20 with =0.5,=0.5. Start your calculations from t=2. Start your calculations from t=2.[10 marks](c) Obtain the values of and which minimize the MSE and superimpose the forecasts on the time series plot. [10 marks](d) Is your view on the suitability of Holts method justified by the forecast plot? Justify your answer. What do the optimal values of and imply?

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