Q. A firm found that 85% of newly hired people met job-related expectations, while 15% did

not. Of those that met expectations, 90% had more than 3 years of experience, while 40% of

those who did not meet expectations had more than 3 years of experience. In your analysis

of this situation below use the notation E to represent the event that an employee met jobrelated expectations and S to represent the event that the person had more than 3 years of experience.

i. Determine the probability that a newly hired person does not have more than 3 years of

experience given they met expectations, that isP(ScE).

ii. Represent the situation described as a probability tree with outcomes, marginal

probabilities, conditional probabilities and joint probabilities labelled.

iii. Identify branches on the probability tree where a newly hired person has more than 3 years experience and then calculate the proportion of these with more than three years of experience who do not meet expectations. Say how this finding might influence policy in relation to new hirings.