Quantitative demand-forecasting methods are based on time series (e.g., exponential smoothing, transfer-function models) or causal relationships (e.g., multivariable regression analysis, trip-generation models). Qualitative methods depend on informed judgment (e.g., morphological analysis, the Delphi technique). Some authors argue that the soundest prediction of a new product draws on both areas: it contains rigorous quantitative elements and an expert consensus.

a) Agree/ Disagree? Why?

b) Forecasts are seldom perfect. What does it mean? How can the operation manager manage this reality?