Question $1(0\mathrm{.}5$ points$)$

The Andes Mining Company mines and ships copper ore. The company's sales manager, Juanita Valdes, has been using the moving$-$average method based on the last three years of sales to forecast the demand for the next year. However, she has become dissatisfied with the inaccurate forecasts being provided by this method. The annual demands $($in tons of copper ore$)$ over the past $10$ years are $382,405,398,421,426,415,443,451,446,464.$

Determine the forecast for next year rounded to the nearest integer. $($Enter a numeric answer with no decimal point and no commas.$)$

A

Question $2(0\mathrm{.}25$ points$)$

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Determine the moving$-$average forecasts for the past seven years. Do not found your forecasts.

What is MAD? $($Enter a numeric answer rounded to the nearest integer with no decimal points and no commas.$)$

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Question $3(0\mathrm{.}25$ points$)$

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What is MSE?

$($Enter a numeric answer rounded to the nearest integer with no decimal points and no commas.$)$

Question $4$

Determine what the forecast would have been for next year if the exponential smoothing method had been used instead with a smoothing constant of alpha $=0\mathrm{.}5$ and initial estimate of $380$ for the first forecast. $($Enter a numeric answer rounded to the nearest integer with no decimal places and no commas.$)$

$\sqrt[A]{?}$

Question $5(0\mathrm{.}25$ points$)$

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When using the exponential smoothing forecasting method, what is MAD? Do not round the forecasts while calculating MAD. $($However$,$ round MAD to the nearest integer, and enter your answer with no decimal places and no commas.$)$

A

Question $6(0\mathrm{.}25$ points$)$

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When using the exponential smoothing forecasting method, what is MSE? $($Enter a numeric answer rounded to the nearest integer with no decimal places and no commas.$)$

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Question $7(1$ point$)$

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Determine what the forecast would have been for next year if exponential smoothing with trend had been used instead. Use $10$ as the value for the first smoothed trend, and use $370$ as the value for the first smoothed forecast. Use smoothing constants alpha $=0\mathrm{.}25$ and beta $=0\mathrm{.}25.($Enter a numeric answer rounded to the nearest integer with no decimal places and no commas.$)$