Question 1 (15 marks)

Data collected on the yearly registrations for a six-sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown below

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Registrations4 6 4 5 10 8 7 9 12 14 15 (000)

a) Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast registrations from year 4 to year 12.

b) Estimate demand again for years 4 to 12 with a 3-year weighted moving average in which registrations in the most recent year are given a weight of 2, and the registrations

in the other 2 years are given a weight of 1.

c) Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.3 to forecast for registrations

at the seminar given in the problem above. To begin the procedure. Assume that the

forecast for year 1 was 5000 people signing up.

d) What is the MAD?

PROGRAMME

Bachelor of Commerce Honours in Supply Chain Management

MODULE

YEAR

Due Date

TOTAL MARKS

e) What is the MSE?

Question 2 (15 marks)

The monthly sales for the year 2020 for Yazici Batteries, Inc were as follows;

Month

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Sales

20

21

15

14

13

16

17

18

20

20

21

23

of the following methods;

Forecast January 2021 sales using each

a) Nave Approach

b) A 3-month moving average

c) A six-month weighted moving

average using 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2 and 0.3 with the heaviest weights applied to the latest months.

d) Exponential smoothing using a smoothing constant of 0.3 and a September forecast of 18.

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