Question $1$

Suppose that an operations manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use for the following forecasting problem. Based on the following historical data, calculate the following forecasts and specify which forecasting method you would utilize.

$$

$$Actual$$

$$Month$$Demand$$

$$

$163$

$265$

$368$

$470$

$574$

$675$

$$

We can calculate the weighted $3-$month forecasts using weights of $0\mathrm{.}6,0\mathrm{.}3,$and $0\mathrm{.}1$for periods $4-6.$In particular, the forecast for period $6$is$$

Question $1$options:

$68\mathrm{.}9$

$71\mathrm{.}6$

$72\mathrm{.}2$

$68\mathrm{.}3$

Question $2$

$$

Refer to the information in Q$1.$

We can calculate the double exponential smoothing forecasts for periods $2-6$using an initial trend forecast $($T$1)$of $1\mathrm{.}8,$and initial exponential smoothing forecast $($S$1)$of $60,$an of $0\mathrm{.}30$and a $$$$of $0\mathrm{.}30.$

In particular, the forecast for period $3$is$$

Question $2$options:

$64\mathrm{.}8480$

$68\mathrm{.}1653$

$71\mathrm{.}2525$

$74\mathrm{.}4708$

Question $3$

$$

Refer to your calculations in Q$1$and Q$2.$

Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation $($MAD$)$over periods $5$and $6$by the above each technique. $$Which forecasting method is better in terms of MAD performance measure?$$

Question $3$options:

double exponential smoothing method

weighted $3-$month moving average method

Question $4$

$$

An operations manager has just finished the reviewing of the latest draft of an upcoming project. The following table provides information about the normal time for each activity, activity sequence and information about crashing costs to shorten some of the activities. He is concerned about the project duration and expects the owners will want the project shortened. For each activity, the maximal number of weeks available for crashing is two weeks. Each activity in the $1$st column precedes the corresponding activity$/$activities in the $2$nd column.

$$

Activity: Start, a$,$b$,$c$,$d$,$e$,$f$,$g$,$h$,$i$,$j$,$k$,$l$,$m$,$n$,$o$,$p$,$q$,$r$,$s$,$t$,$u$,$v$,$x$,$y$,$z

Precedes: a b$,$c$,$d$,$d$,$e f$,$g$,$h$,$end$,$ end

Normal Time$($wk$)$:$0,5,7,4,6,4,5,3,4$

Crashing$|$First Week:$-,11,15,12,20,13,10,15,8$

Costs $($in $$)|$Second Week:$-,14,16,15,22,15,12,15,9$

$$

$$

What is the current project duration assuming the project is not shortened?$$

Question $4$options:

$21$

$22$

$23$

$24$

Question $5$

$$

Refer to the information in Q$4.$

The operations manager thinks the owners may ask him to shorten the project by up to four weeks. Therefore, prepare the lowest cost crashing plan that will reduce the project duration by four weeks.$$

Question $5$:

h$-$h$-$f$-$a

h$-$h$-$a$-$c

h$-$f$-$a$-$c

h$-$h$-$f$-$c

Question $6$

$$

Refer to the information in Q$4.$

Suppose that the indirect cost is $$10/$week for this project.$$In order to minimize the total cost of indirect cost and the crashing cost over the whole project duration, how many weeks will be reduced regarding the project duration?$$

Question $6$options:

$1$

$2$

$3$

$4$