Question $2$

The data in Table F gives the demand $($measured in $\text{'}000$ of viewership$)$ for a local television

programme of the last ten $(10)$ months. You have decided to use this data to help in your marketing

strategy over the next few months.

Required:

a$.$ Use the following three $(3)$ forecasting methods to forecasts periods $4$ to $10$ :

i$.$ Single exponentially smoothed, using a forecast for period $3(F_3)$ of $450$ and an alpha $()$ of $0\mathrm{.}4.$

ii$.$ Three$-$period simple moving$-$average

iii. Weighted moving average, using weights of $0\mathrm{.}70,0\mathrm{.}20$ and $0\mathrm{.}10,$ respectively, with $0\mathrm{.}70$ applied

to the most recent data.

b$.$ Calculate the mean absolute deviation $($MAD$)$ for each of the forecasting methods in part $($a$)$ and

use this to determine which of the three forecasting methods you would you select, stating the

reason$($s$)$ for your choice.