Question: Question (3): Based on what you have studied in decision analysis theory, solve the following problem: (10 marks) Fatima is considering the possibility of opening
Question (3): Based on what you have studied in decision analysis theory, solve the following problem: (10 marks)
Fatima is considering the possibility of opening a small dress shop the Diplomatic area, a few blocks from the university. She has located a good place to attract students. Her options are to open a small shop, a medium-sized shop, or no shop at all. The market for a dress shop can be good average, or bad. The probabilities for these three possibilities are 0.2 for a good market, 0.5 for an average market, and 0.3 for a bad market. The net profit or loss for the medium- sized and small shops for the various market conditions are given in the following table.
|
| State of Nature |
|
|
| Alternatives | Good market ($) | Average market ($) | Bad market ($) |
| Small shop | 75 000 | 25 000 |
|
| Medium-sized shop |
|
|
|
| No shop | 0 | 0 | 0 |
From the table above solve the following questions:
- What is the maxi-max decision (Optimistic)? (3 Mark)
- What is the maxi-min decision (pessimistic)? (3 Mark)
- Determine the EMV criterion if the decision- making environment is under risk. (4 marks)
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