Question #$5.$ Forecast for period # $13$ using the three methods as shown in the table below. Find MAD and MAPE for each method. Which method is giving you the best forecast? Why?

Four period Simple Exponential Smoothing Na$$ve Method #$2$

Moving Average Method Alpha $=0\mathrm{.}6$ Forecast $=$ Average Sales

Sales Forecast Error $\%$Error Forecast Error $\%$Error Forecast Error $\%$Error

Period Y Y cap Y $$Y cap APE Y cap Y $$Y cap APE Y cap Y $$Y cap APE

$124-----$

$22524$

$327$

$424$

$526$

$624$

$729$

$828$

$924$

$1026$

$1127$

$1223$

Results $===$

Forecast MAD MAPE Forecast MAD MAPE Forecast MAD MAPE

The best forecast is $\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_$

because$\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_$