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Part $1$

City Cycles has just started selling the new Upper Z dash $10$ mountain$$ bike, with monthly sales as shown in the table.

$$

Month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

Sales

$404$

$380$

$418$

$370$

Part $2$

$$a$)$ Based on the given monthly sales$$ data, it can be said that there is

$$

not a strong

a strong

linear trend in sales over time.

Part $3$

$$b$)$ First,$$ co$-$owner Amit wants to forecast by exponential smoothing by initially setting$$ February's forecast equal to$$ January's sales with alpha $=0\mathrm{.}10.$ Using the forecastingLOADING... $$method$,$ Amit$\text{'}$s forecast for the month of May$$ is: $($Round your response to two decimal$$ places.$)$

Month

Sales

Forecast

Jan

$404$

minus

Feb

$380$

$404\mathrm{.}00$

Mar

$418$

$401\mathrm{.}60$

Apr

$370$

$403\mathrm{.}24$

May

minus

$$

enter your response here

Part $4$

$$Second$,$ co$-$owner Barbara wants to forecast using a$$ three$-$period moving average. The forecast for the month of May$$ is: $($Round your response to two decimal$$ places.$)$

Month

Sales

Forecast

Jan

$404$

minus

Feb

$380$

minus

Mar

$418$

minus

Apr

$370$

$400\mathrm{.}67$

May

minus

$$

enter your response here

Part $5$

$$c$)$ Assume that$$ May's actual sales figure turns out to be $410.$ For the forecast developed by Amit using exponential smoothingLOADING...$,$ the mean absolute deviation $($MAD$)$LOADING$...$equals

$$

enter your response here sales. $($Round your response to two decimal$$ places.$)$

Part $6$

Assume that$$ May's actual sales figure turns out to be $410.$ For the forecast developed by Barbara using a$3-$month moving$$ average, the mean absolute deviation $($MAD$)$equals

$$

enter your response here sales. $($Round your response to two decimal$$ places.$)$

Part $7$

$$d$)$ Based on the above$$ calculations, the forecast approach used by

$$

Barbara

Amit

is better.