Question no.4 (20)

Using the data given in Table above, calculate the following:

1. Three month weighted moving average for the month of July 2006 and Aug 2006 and Sept 2006 with the most recent month weighted 0.5, the preceding month 0.3 and the oldest month 0.2. ( 6 marks)

2. If the value of forecast for Jan 2007 is 770, Calculate the forecast for the month of Feb, March, April, May 2007 using exponential smoothing method (a=0.30 and a=0.50) (8 marks)

Compare the two models of forecasting developed in part (b) by calculating their MAPE (Feb till May, 2007). Which one is more accurate? Justify. (6 marks)