Question: QUESTION#1: (8 marks) Consider the following time series data. Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 1 2 3 4 4 2 3 5 6

QUESTION#1: (8 marks)

Consider the following time series data.

Quarter

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

1

2

3

4

4

2

3

5

6

3

5

7

7

6

6

8

  1. Graph this data series (use the X-Y scatter/chart tool in Excel for this plot). What type of pattern(s) exists in the data? Does the graph suggest that these data exhibit seasonality? What is the length of the season in this particular case? (2 marks)
  2. Determine the seasonal factors for each quarter using METHOD 1 (multiplicative seasonal model). (2 marks)
  3. Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year (Year 4)? (4 marks)

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