Questions:

1. Develop a forecast with a three-period moving average and a four-period moving average. Identify which method is better by comparing MAD, MSE and MAPE.

2. Develop a forecast with a three-period weighted moving average and suggest the optimum weights for each period by using excel solver.

3. Identify the trend component and seasonal components of the data set using the appropriate method.

4. Develop a budget for 2012 and 2013 by using a forecast for attendance by analyzing the forecasts you developed in Question1 to question 3. Justify the selection of the method.

5. Develop an action plan for the school by analyzing all the options.

Forecasting Football Game Attendance SWU hired the legendary Bo Pitterno as its head coach. at Southwestern University Although the number-one ranking remained out of reach, Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Ste- attendance at the five Saturday home games each year in- phenville, Texas, 30 miles southwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth creased. Prior to Pitterno's arrival, attendance generally metroplex, enrolls close to 20,000 students. In a typical town averaged 25,000 to 29,000 per game. Season ticket sales gown relationship, the school is a dominant force in the small bumped up by 10,000 just with the announcement of the city, with more students during fall and spring than permanent new coach's arrival. Stephenville and SWU were ready to residents. move to the big time! A longtime football powerhouse, SWU is a member of The immediate issue facing SWU, however, was not the Big Eleven conference and is usually in the top 20 in NCAA ranking; it was capacity. The existing SWU stadium, college football rankings. To bolster its chances of reaching built in 1953, has seating for 54,000 fans. The table on the next the elusive and long-desired number-one ranking, in 2006 page indicates attendance at each game for the past six years: GAME 1 2006 ATTENDEES OPPONENT 34,200 Baylor 39,800 Texas 38,200 LSU 26,900 Arkansas 35,100 USC 2007 ATTENDEES OPPONENT 36,100 Oklahoma 40,200 Nebraska 39,100 UCLA 25,300 Nevada 36,200 Ohio State 2008 ATTENDEES OPPONENT 35,900 TCU 46,500 Texas Tech 43,100 Alaska 27,900 Arizona 39,200 Rice 40* 5 2009 2010 2011 GAME ATTENDEES OPPONENT ATTENDEES OPPONENT ATTENDEES OPPONENT 1 41,900 Arkansas 42.500 Indiana 46,900 LSU 28 46,100 Missouri 48,200 North Texas 50,100 Texas 3 43,900 Florida 44,200 Texas A&M 45,900 Prairie View A&M 30,100 Miami 33,900 Southern 36,300 Montana 5 40,500 Duke 47,800 Oklahoma 49.900 Arizona State * Homecoming games ** During the fourth week of each season, Stephenville hosted a hugely popular Southwestern crafts festival. This event brought tens of thousands of tourists to the town, especially on weekends, and had an obvious negative impact on game attendance. Source: J. Heizer and B. Render. Operations Management, 10th ed., 2011. Reprinted by permission of Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. assuming an average ticket price of $20 in 2012 and a 5% in- crease each year in future prices. One of Pitterno's demands upon joining SWU had been a stadium expansion, or possibly even a new stadium. With atten- dance increasing, SWU administrators began to face the issue head-on. Pitterno had wanted dormitories in the stadium, solely for his athletes, as an additional feature of any expansion. SWU's president, Dr. Marty Starr, decided it was time for his vice president of development to forecast when the existing stadium would "max out." He also sought a revenue projection