Question: respond to your classmates' posts with recommendations and positive comments Class, In my experience examples Decision making under risk involves considering various choices and several
respond to your classmates' posts with recommendations and positive comments
Class,
In my experience examples Decision making under risk involves considering various choices and several possible outcomes in an organization.
Decision Under Risk:
Example: Investing in the Stock Market
Investing a particular sum of money in the stock market. You have done your research and found a few stocks you might want to consider buying. To determine the likelihood of profits or losses for these equities, you will have to evaluate the market environment and their prior performance.
Potential Results 1. The most probable result is that the investments generate profits in line with market research and historical trends.
- The least likely scenario is that the market will suddenly crash, in the process losing of money of your investments. Calculate probabilities based on historical data and market analysis in decision under risk. It can help simulate the possible outcomes and choose wisely how to distribute investment across several stocks.
Decision Under Uncertainty:
Example: Creating a new product Considering an organization that want to create a new product that has never been seen before. And having a vision for this product, there aren't any previous data or comparable cases to adequately evaluate probabilities. Explanation:
Unknown Outcomes:
- Market Acceptance: The market's reaction to your new product is unpredictable. Will it be received with enthusiasm, creating great demand, or with skepticism?
- Technical Difficulties: Because the product is innovative, there may be unanticipated technical difficulties that slow down development or perhaps make the concept impossible to implement.
- Regulatory and Legal Issues: The development schedule and cost of new goods are frequently impacted by unanticipated legal or regulatory issues.
Several positions for organizers assigning the functions to different members. By the reasonable allocations of people, organizers could separate various tasks in different departments. Event directors, operations coordinators, safety coordinators, logistics coordinators, and finance coordinators are included in an event management team, and every director plays an important role in the event team so that members could accomplish works successfully (Risser, J., & Herman, M. L).
When the outcome of the decision is not known with certainty, a manager faces a decision-making problem under either condition of risk or conditions of uncertainty. A decision is made under conditions of risk when a manager can make a list of all possible random outcomes associated with a decision and assign a probability of occurrence to each one of the outcomes. The process of assigning probabilities of occurrence to outcomes sometimes involves rather sophisticated analysis based upon the manager's extensive experience in similar situations or on other data.
In conclusion the difference between risk and uncertainty is evident in both instances. In the first scenario, you can estimate probabilities using historical data and market analysis, enabling more quantitative decision-making. The second scenario places a higher level of uncertainty and reliance on qualitative judgments in the decision-making process due to the lack of previous data and the presence of numerous unknown elements.
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