Rich James, Program Office Director, has developed the tasks, durations, and predecessor relationships in the following table for Disaster Recovery Team deployment (DRT). To solve this problem, calculate the expected completion time and variance for each activity, draw a network diagram, complete a forward and backward pass, identify the critical path. Follow the step-by-step solution approach in Gray and Larson text, Chapter 7, Appendix 7.1 called PERT.

What is the probability of completion of the project before week 39?

		Time estimates (in weeks)
Activity	Immediate predecessor	Optimistic	Most likely	Pessimistic
A	-	4	8	10
B	A	2	8	24
C	A	8	12	16
D	A	4	6	10
E	B	1	2	3
F	E,C	6	8	20
G	E,C	2	3	4
H	F	2	2	2
I	F	6	6	6
J	D,G,H	4	6	12
K	I,J	2	2	3

choices an answer from the down following: ?

1- Due to rounding, between 31.50% and 36.68%

2- Due to rounding, between 5.71% and 6.65%

3- Due to rounding, between 7.85% and 8.69%

4- Due to rounding, between 8.79% and 9.8%