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Retail trade accounts form a significant amount of the Australian economy. It is always important to study the behaviour of retail turnovers and forecast future Australian retail trade. We have obtained a sample of quarterly Australian retail turnovers from Q1, 2006 to Q2, 2019. Turnover of Australian retail trade (2006-2019) ($m) 100000 90000 Turnover ($m) 80000 70000 60000 Provide an interpretation of the December quarter index computed above. 50000 A research analyst constructed two forecast models, Model A and Model B. Based on t 40000 two models, he forecasted the retail turnover for Q3, Q4 of 2019 and Q1 of 2020. 12 16 24 28 32 36 40 4 48 52 Quarter and Year Actual Model A Model B Quarters Q3, 2019 80,300 82,900 81,000 Q4, 2019 92.900 83,500 93,400 Q1,2020 81,900 84,100 a) "The time series plot above can be described by all 4 components: trend, seasonal, cyclic 79,900 and irregular". Do you agree with this statement? Explain why or why not. Based on the information above, evaluate and compare the performance of these tw models using the Mean Squared Forecast Error method. Discuss which forecast mo is better? Explain why. Show all working b) John has estimated a model: It = 48921 - 617.6t, where t is the time in quarters, with =/ corresponding to the first quarter of 2006. Then, he computed the seasonal index for each quarter, March, June, September and December, in the following table. March 0.95 June 0.91 September 0.98 December 1.06 Do you think John's model and seasonal index are correct? Provide clear evidence to support your answer by discussing at least two points for OR against