Scenario Analysis Under Uncertainty You are an analyst working for an established consumer products firm. The firm is considering launching a new product. This new product is outside any of the existing product lines. This means that this new product creates a significant opportunity to establish the organization in a new market. However, it also means that there is greater uncertainty than normal $($i$.$e$.,$ compared to when the firm launches products in established markets or along established lines$).$ While it is not the only key performance indicator, product profitability is important to upper management. In particular, upper management is interested in whether this new product is able to break even, given the current practical capacity of $90,000$ units. The following additional information is available for relevant parameters. $$ The projected sales price is $$5\mathrm{.}00$ per unit $$ The projected variable cost is $$2\mathrm{.}00$ per unit $$ Fixed costs are $$220,000$ per year Based on a first pass, you find that $$all is well, at least in terms of capacity.$$ But, you also want to dig a bit deeper. It dawns on you that a decision tree might be in order. You collect the following information regarding the nature of uncertainty in this setting, noting the following: $$ The projected sales price and costs are expected values $($i$.$e$.,$ means$)$ of a continuous distribution. $$ The standard deviations $($i$.$e$.,$ measures of variation$)$ for each parameter are as follows: o Sales price per unit standard deviation $=+/-$ $$0\mathrm{.}50$ o Variable cost per unit standard deviation $=+/-$ $$0\mathrm{.}22$ o Fixed cost standard deviation $=+/-$ $$9,000$ Sales price, variable costs, and fixed costs are assumed to be a normal distribution o This means that $95\%$ of the observable values are within two standard deviations of expected value $($i$.$e$.,$ mean$)$ Question: How would you analyze this scenario? Discuss the pros and the cons of decision tree modeling.