Scenario:

You first project is helping with nursing logistics at Prisma Health. Your collaborator (Bill) mentions that the number of nurses you need varies based on the number of patients you have. However, the number of patients is stochastic. Bill has also given you the following data on the number of patients who arrive each day. Well assume theres no seasonality.

a.) Using the single exponential method with = 0.7, forecast the number of patients for Feb. 2-6.

b.) Calculate and report the mean square error of the forecast.

c.) A different forecasting method (called Method B) is also used on the data, and it produces a mean square error of 150. Which method (single exponential smoothing or Method B) produces a better forecast? Explain.

Day Feb. 1 Feb. 2 Feb. 3 Feb. 4 Feb. 5 Number of patients 434 450 437 448 452