Question: Section 2: Model Building For the E-Commerce Retail Sales (Million$) data given in the table below, provide estimates from the 1st Quarter (Q1) of 2014

Section 2: Model Building

  1. For the E-Commerce Retail Sales (Million$) data given in the table below, provide estimates from the 1st Quarter (Q1) of 2014 to the 3rd Quarter (Q3) of 2015 by using two models:

1) Single Exponential Smoothing with =0.3

2) Trend Naive model.

Quarter

Year

Actual

Q1

2014

66045

Q2

2014

69594

Q3

2014

71173

Q4

2014

95673

Q1

2015

75718

Q2

2015

79695

Q3

2015

81566

  1. Compare two models above (Single Exponential Smoothing and Trend Naive) based on their MAD values. Which forecasting method appears to be better? Using the model you choose, provide forecast for the 4th Quarter (Q4) of 2015.

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