Shrieves Casting Company is considering adding a new line to its product mix, and the capital budgeting analysis is being conducted by Sidney Johnson, a recently graduated MBA. The production line would be set up in unused space in Shrievess main plant. The machinerys invoice price would be approximately $200,000, another $10,000 in shipping charges would be required, and it would cost an additional $30,000 to install the equipment. The machinery has an economic life of 4 years, and Shrieves has obtained a special tax ruling that places the equipment in the MACRS 3-year class. The machinery is expected to have a salvage value of $25,000 after 4 years of use.

The new line would generate incremental sales of 1,250 units per year for 4 years at an incremental cost of $100 per unit in the first year, excluding depreciation. Each unit can be sold for $200 in the first year. The sales price and cost are both expected to increase by 3% per year due to inflation. Further, to handle the new line, the firms net working capital would have to increase by an amount equal to 12% of sales revenues. The firms tax rate is 40%, and its overall weighted average cost of capital is 10%.

K) Assume that Sidney Johnson is confident in her estimates of all the variables that affect the project's cash flows expect until sales and sales price. If product acceptance is poor, unit sales would be only 900 units a year and the unit pricewould only be $160; a strong consumer response would produce sales of 1,600 units and a unit price of $240. Johnson believes there is a 25% chance of poor acceptance, a 25% chance of excellent acceptance, and a 50% chance of average acceptance (the base case)

1) What is scenario analysis

2) What is the worst-case NPV? The best case NPV?

3) Use the worst, base, and the best-case NPV's and probablilities of occurence to find the project's expected NPV, as well as the NPV's standard deviation and coefficient of variation.