Question: Simulate all options for the repair/replace example on page 333. The options are: replace end of day 3 replace end of day 4, repair if
Simulate all options for the repair/replace example on page 333. The options are: replace end of day 3 replace end of day 4, repair if breaks on day 4 replace end of day 5, repair if breaks on day 5 repair when it breaks
The Heavy Duty Company has just purchased a large machine for a new production process. The machine is powered by a motor that occasionally breaks down and requires a major over- haul because of its heavy-duty use. Therefore, the manufacturer of the machine also provides a second standby motor. The two motors are rotated in use, with each one remaining in the machine until it is removed for an overhaul (perhaps because it has just broken down) and replaced by the other one. Given the planned usage of the machine, its manufacturer has provided the company with information about the durability of the motors (the number of days of usage until a breakdown occurs). This information is shown in the first two columns of Table 12.1. The first column lists the number of days the current machine has been in use. For each of these days, the sec- ond column then gives the probability that the breakdown will occur on that day. Since these probabilities are 0 except for days 4, 5, and 6, the breakdown always occurs during the fourth, fifth, or sixth day. The third column provides a straightforward way of assigning random num- bers to correspond to each of these three possibilities. Corresponding Random Numbers TABLE 12.1 The Probability Distri- bution of Breakdowns for Heavy Duty's Motors, and the Cor- responding Random Numbers Day 1,2,3 4 5 6 7 or more Probability of a Breakdown 0 0.25 0.5 0.25 0 0.0000 to 0.2499 0.2500 to 0.7499 0.7500 to 0.9999