SIR SLICE-A-LOT 352 354 357 CASE STUDY Top-Slice Drivers Introduction Two years ago, Top-Slice Company moved from just making golf balls to also producing oversized drivers. Top-Slice makes three different models: the Bomber, the Hook King, and the Sir Slice-A-Lot. As the names suggest, the last two clubs help cor- rect for golfers who either hook or slice the ball when driving While Top-Slice is pleased with the growing sales for all three models (see the following tables), the numbers present Ja- cob Lee, the production manager with a dilemma. Jacob knows that the current manufacturing work cell is capable of produc- ing only 2,700 drivers per month, and total sales seem to be rapidly approaching that number. Jacobs staff has told him it will take at least three months to plan for and implement an expanded work cell. MONTH BOMBER HOOK KING SIR SLICE-A-LOT April 2014 1410 377 343 May 1417 381 1,434 387 346 July 1.452 391 349 August 1.466 396 Continued) MONTH September October November December January 2015 February March April May June July August September October November December January 2016 February March BOMBER 1.483 1,490 1,505 1.521 1,536 1.547 1,554 1,562 1.574 1,587 1,595 1.613 1,631 1,642 1.656 1.673 1,685 1.703 1.720 HOOK KING 400 403 409 412 420 423 426 431 437 441 445 454 461 464 471 477 480 485 490 359 363 365 367 369 371 375 377 381 384 386 389 392 394 396 399 346 June 350 Questions 1. Develop a quantitative forecast model for Jacob. Which modeling technique did you choose, and why? What are the assumptions behind your model? 2. According to your model when will Top Slice need to have the expanded work cell up and running? What are the im plications for when Jacob should start the expansion effort? 3. Now suppose that over lunch the marketing vice president says to Jacob: We're feeling a lot of heat from Chinese manufacturers who are offering very similar clubs to ours, but at significantly CHAPTER 9. FORECASTING 293 lower prices. The legal department is working on a patent infringement case, but if we can't block these clubs from entering the market. I expect to see our sales flatten, and maybe even fall, over the rest of the year. What questions should Jacob ask? How would the answers to these questions affect the forecast? Does it still make sense to use quantitative forecasting under these circumstances? Why