Student's Name and ID $\backslash$#:

A$)$ Plot the demand for both products. What is the number of seasons $($p$)?$ Given the plots, which forecasting methods do you recommend for predicting the demand for each product? Why?

B$)$ Use the Static method to forecast demand for product $1$ for periods $16$ to $25.$ What is the value of MAPE in period $15?($use the average seasonal factors to forecast demand for periods $1$ to $15,$ just as you do for periods $16$ to $25,$ when estimating the forecast errors$)$

C$)$ Use Holt's model to forecast the demand for product $1$ for periods $16$ to $25,$ assuming $\backslash (\backslash$alpha$=0\mathrm{.}1\backslash ),$ and $\backslash (\backslash$beta$=0\mathrm{.}2\backslash ).$ What is the value of MAPE in period $15?$

D$)$

i$)$ Use Winter's model to forecast the demand for product $1$ for periods $16$ to $25,$ assuming $\backslash (\backslash$alpha$=0\mathrm{.}1\backslash ),$ and $\backslash (\backslash$beta$=0\mathrm{.}2\backslash ),$ and $\backslash (\backslash$gamma$=0\mathrm{.}3\backslash ).$

ii$)$ What is the value of MAPE in period $15?$

iii$)$ Determine the Tracking Signal $($TS$)$ for periods $1$ to $15$ and assess whether the forecast is biased based on a threshold of $\backslash (\backslash$pm $4\backslash ).$ Provide justification for your conclusion.

E$)$ Identify the optimal values for $\backslash (\backslash$alpha$,\backslash$beta $\backslash ),$ and $\backslash (\backslash$gamma $\backslash )$ for Winter's model. $($Note: Initial values for $\backslash (\backslash$alpha$,\backslash$beta $\backslash ),$ and $\backslash (\backslash$gamma $\backslash )$ are not required, as the solver will iteratively adjust these parameters to minimize the forecast MAPE.$)$