subject: supply chain managemnt

Forecasting (chapter 4)

Using the demand data from the table below, Develop 3 differentforecast models for the month of April to September (Periods 4 through 9)

a. Forecast # 1: Use 2 period moving average model forecast

b. Forecast # 2: Use 3 period moving average model forecast

c. Forecast # 3: Use Exponential Smoothing Forecasting model

Calculate the MFE & MAD and APE for Periods 4 through (n = 6) for all 3 Forecasts.

NOTE: Show all your manual calculations and formulas on the last page. (no Manual calculations and formulas = no grades for the forecasts)

this is the part of this question.

Demand Data:

Month	Period	Demand (Number of passengers)
Jan	1	3800
February	2	3200
March	3	2900
April	4	3200
May	5	3400
June	6	3500
July	7	3900
August	8	5800
September	9	5700

manthara Forecast : priedag wensedel fattor Forecast pedig med at for Periodoh Forecast Drop and Shining modeli 2.35 for Prehrough dline - a. Forecast # 1: 2-period moving average model forecast for Periods 4 through 9 Month Period Demand (passengers) 2-period forecast Forecast error Absolute deviatian (APE) Absolute Percentage Error January February March April May June July August September Means: b. Forecast #2:3.period moving average model forecast for Periods 4 through 9 Month Period 3-period forecast Forecast error Demand (passengers) Absolute deviation R (APE) Absolute Percentage Error January February March April May June July August September Means: L. Forecast # 3. Develop an Exponential Smoothing Forecasting model with a 0.3s for Periods4though In6) for the resulting forecast model Assume your forecast for period 4 wat 1000 IM Month Period Demand (passengers) ESM forecast Forecast error Abeute deration Ante Per Emer March 1000 April May June July August September Meants