Suppose a distribution center is considering three options for expansion $(1)$ to expand into a new plant, $(2)$ to add on third$-$shift to the daily schedule, and $(3)$ a small expansion to the existing facility. There are three possibilities for demand. These are high, medium, and low having probabilities of $40\%,33\%,$ and $27\%$ respectively. Suppose that the profits for the expansion plans are as follows:

The new plant expected outcomes are $$110,000,$$$50,000,$ and $-$$$15,000,$ the third shift consideration would result in outcomes of $$40,000,$ $$20,000,$ and $-$$$5,000$ and the small expansion choice would in the following dollar amounts $$15,000,$$$13,000,-$$$1,500.$

The amount that the company must invest in each alternative is: new plant $=$$$48,000,$ third shift $=$$$15,100,$ small expansion $=$$$8,700$

a$.$ The profit$/$loss $($EMV$)$ for the new plant is $

b$.$ The profit$/$loss $($EMV$)$ for adding a third shift is $

The profit$/$loss $($EMV$)$ for the small expansion is $

Which of the expansion plans should the manager choose?

What if an outside consultant was hired by the organization and the obabilities were re$-$evaluated as a result of better information. The