Suppose this is a stock-for-stock deal. Instead of purchasing Target's stock with cash, Walmart offers to give every Target shareholder  share of Walmart for each share of Target (and Walmart is currently trading at $102.44). Target's stock price increases to $47.25 after this announcement. Still, for a merger arbitrageur to find Target's stock attractive at this point, the expected probability that the deal will go through needs to be higher than a breakeven value. What should be this expected probability of a successful merger deal?