Question: Suppose we have data for U . S . interest rate data over the period 1 9 6 0 :Q 1 to 2 0 0
Suppose we have data for US interest rate data over the period :Q to :Q and we are interested in estimating a quarterly model of spread between a longterm and a shortterm interest rate. SpeciOcally the interest rate spread s can be formed as the dierence between the interest rate on a year US government bonds r and the rate on a threemonth treasury bills Tbill as
st rt T billt
Suppose the interest rate spread in the fourth quarter of is the interest rate spread in the Orst quarter of is and the interest rate spread in the second quarter of is Use the EViews output to answer the following questions:
a Write the estimated equation given in the Eviews output. b Obtain the onestep ahead forecast.
c Obtain the onestep ahead forecast error. d Obtain the twostep ahead forecast.
e Obtain the threestep ahead forecast.
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