tarbucks has a large, global supply chain that must efficiently supply over 17,000 stores. Although the stores might appear to be very similar, they are actually very different. Depending on the location of the store, its size, and the profile of the customers served, Starbucks management configures the store offerings to take maximum advantage of the space available and customer preferences.

Starbucks actual distribution system is much more complex, but for the purpose of our exercise lets focus on a single item that is currently distributed through five distribution centers in the United States. Our item is a logo-branded coffeemaker that is sold at some of the larger retail stores. The coffeemaker has been a steady seller over the years due to its reliability and rugged construction. Starbucks does not consider this a seasonal product, but there is some variability in demand. Demand for the product over the past 13 weeks is shown in the following table. (week 1 is the week before week 1 in the table, 2 is two weeks before week 1, etc.).

Management would like you to experiment with some forecasting models to determine what should be used in a new system to be implemented. The new system is programmed to use one of two forecasting models: simple moving average or exponential smoothing.

WEEK	5	4	3	2	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Atlanta	36	33	32	58	33	33	45	36	34	55	32	20	58	46	35	26	57	42
Boston	59	30	50	45	33	35	33	46	41	47	44	56	22	65	43	34	42	54
Chicago	54	25	65	38	42	45	33	26	50	47	65	65	30	25	91	33	43	45
Dallas	35	28	35	54	43	30	28	35	40	45	58	66	61	46	41	35	40	43
LA	40	40	45	35	35	38	43	46	47	45	66	42	35	39	42	45	50	50
Total	224	156	227	230	186	181	182	189	212	239	265	249	206	221	252	173	232	234

a. Consider using a simple moving average model. Experiment with models using five weeks and three weeks past data. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)

3-week MA

5-Week MA

b. Evaluate the forecasts that would have been made over the 13 weeks using the overall (at the end of the 13 weeks) mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round all answers to 2 decimal places. Enter "MAPE" answers as a percentage rounded to 2 decimal places.)

a. Consider using a simple moving average model. Experiment with models using five weeks' and three weeks' past data. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) 3-week MA ATL BOS CHI DAL LA Total Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 5-week MA Week ATL BOS CHI DAL LA Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 b. Evaluate the forecasts that would have been made over the 13 weeks using the overall (at the end of the 13 weeks) mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round all answers to 2 decimal places. Enter "MAPE" answers as a percentage rounded to 2 decimal places.) ATL BOS CHI DAL LA Avg of DCs 3-week MA MAD MAPE TS MAD MAPE TS 5-week MA